How much of a reduction in the global food supply can Western civilization survive?

Question

The likely first consequences of reduced crops relative to world population are famine in less developed countries and rising prices in wealthier countries. Can civil disorder, wars, famines, plagues and all the secondary effects thereof in less developed countries destabilize Europe and North America? What percent reduction in food supply can Europe and North America tolerate before people riot? Will rising populations cause these effects faster than global warming?

Answer 1

One of the first things to go will be the 'fast food' industry.  That kind of wasteful operation cannot be justified or sustained. At that point 85% of Americans will be forced on a very strict diet plan!  When you hear of them "down-sizing" or going out of business,you know that it's too late to start hoarding survival food. I've been stocked up for a while now.

Answer 2

It would force lifestyle change in America.  I don't know if that is a bad thing when it comes to food, are young today are overweight and we will see some serious medical problems unless something changes.  I am no global warming proponent but  what we waste in the our Nation is unacceptable. My hope would be that if tough times do come  it would bring out  the best of us not the worst.

Answer 3

Alarmism is usually misplaced.  If a risk is obvious, people do whatever they can to avoid it.  

There was nobody ringing the warning bells before the Titanic hit the iceberg, but every end of the world prediction has obviously been wrong.

Answer 4

That's an interesting question.  We're so accustomed to going to any of tens of thousands of supermarkets and having shelves full of all kinds of food within our reach.  I think it would be scary to see what would happen if there were suddenly insufficient food in our developed countries.  I could see people fighting over the available food, rioting in the streets, etc.

I really don't know what percentage decrease in global food production would cause this kind of shortage, but with the rising global population and inevitability of global warming-caused droughts, it's not outside the realm of possibility.

Answer 5

First of all watch the movie Solent Green - This movie is based on all the factors we are arguing about actually occuring. The premise of the movie is that we destroyed the planet to the point that all the land is barren and the supposed only source of food is from the ocean, but that's dying too, but they continue to lie to the people and claim that the Solent Green people love so much is harvested seaweed that's refined, when in actuality it's from people.

I know this is waay over the top, but in the movie they have riot police and on days they supply people with Solent Green these police have to be around to curb the riots that ensue when the vendors start running out of Solent Green.

The basic answer to you question would be at a 50% reduction in the food supply people would start rioting, since they'd start to notice less products on the shelves and start to fight each other for the food. We'd have to form bread lines to recieve their stipend of food to keep people from fighting over food.

But I don't see that happening in a warmer climate, since we'd have a longer growing season. I'd see this happening if we we're solidly heading into a glaciation period and the planets growing seasons we're drasticly reduced.

The proplem lies with people trying to create biofuels, so we don't have extra food supplies to feed the poor nations of the World.

Answer 6

Don't worry, as long as we don't divert surplus food to use as ethanol and don't use GM crops that contaminate other crops which affects their safety and viability, we don't have to worry--we'll continue to have an abundance of food.  Crops can even be grown in barren deserts!  It's nothing new.  

http://www.earthsky.org/radioshows/48930...

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=h...

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http...

Edit: Wow--alarmists have been saying the same thing since the 60s!

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/...

Answer 7

Nice question-about percentage we do not know but how far can the West make that sacrifice cannot be guessed unless they are prepared to walk as ascets ( bony people as we see in the Eastern societies-often called the walking skeletons)

Take global warming out of this question.It has always existed and always people have lived.In fact if you go deep at the -false food crisis- talked so much by the media-probably short of hot news you will find 'the terrorist spirit' behind such propaganda ( terrorise the world in their homes) with hidden agenda behind their heads.Millions ask-WHY NOT GO TO GM FOODS? Rarely we see answers at the media.( as if GM stuffs are killers)

Answer 8

For those interested, here's a nice web-site to evaluate historic food prices.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/outside.jsp?surv...

Answer 9

I've given this some thought.  Nothing quantitative or researched, just some general ideas.

I think we have so much slack now, so much waste, that some simple belt tightening (no pun intended) will give us enough time to stay ahead of the curve.

Prices are going to keep going up.  We will have less and less as disposable income, eventually coming on par with the third world situation where basically your entire income goes to water, food, shelter and energy.

But even approaching this point Americans will still have a good life, comparatively speaking, so I don't think we will have riots.  

In our Democratic Republic we will have massive protests that will effectively cripple the government and economy until our leaders get the point and do something about it.  Kind of like a Great Depression scenario.

But having to endure the pain we will go through to get to this point will create massive innovation.  

Innovation that will create a new infrastructure. An infrastructure where every household will produce a portion of their own food and water (collected rain water), a portion of their own energy, and process a portion of their own waste.  

For example, I've already calculated the amount of water necessary for a household.  In my area we get 40" of rain per year.  With a collection area the size of the roof of an average home and a cistern the size of an average basement, in one year you could collect more than one year's worth of water use and store enough for 2-3 years.  (Global warming changes considered.  At 40N and on the ocean side of the range I'm hopeful there won't be much negative change.)

Add intensive gardening, passive solar, solar thermal, solar PV, wind and ground source energy collection, composting toilets, etc. etc.

Yes there will be pain, but we can do it.

And I hate to say it, but if we can sustain the massive investment in our military we will be insulated from the horrible gargantuan convulsions the less stable world will endure.  I also see closed borders in our future.

edit:

By 2020 China will become a net importer of grain.  That's the magic number.

edit:

Yes, waste in the US that is.  Thank you.

Answer 10

Western civilization?  You mean capitalism?  We could survive any and all loss of the "global food supply".  We've got these seeds....and buildings with grow lights....and buildings with meat crops....we'll be ok.  The rest of the world will starve without our aid, but we'll be consuming plenty on our happy little island on the backside of the world.

Answer 11

firstly, i think europe will get pressure long before north america, partly because there is less of the 'slack'  dr. blob mentions, but mainly because we have africa right near us, and this is going to be the continent that is first affected (indeed is already being affected).

second, the relative distribution of food will be more important than the overall amount; if african nations are allowed to reintroduce trade barriers (or developed nations actually get rid of their subsidies to energy companies and farmers), a genuine level playing field in other words, more land would be used for food for africa rather than used for export goods, flown here as luxury out of season produce and shipped as cotton.

third, if much more western aid is concentrated on local scale sustainable farming, home grown industry such as solar panel manufacture (there is so far only one maker, in cape town), and basic infrastructure, instead of high prestige large projects tied to unreasonable and unsuitable political constraints, then life wont get so bad for the africans. same goes for other high risk areas such as palestine and bangladesh.

Answer 12

I am not going to outright reject your hypothesis, but you can at least back up with what you are saying.  Is there a trend towards less food production?  Can you give me some proof?

Yes, food prices are going up, but that is due to policies to fight global warming by converting food as fuel, and the rising demand for food from China.  That has nothing to do with droughts causing food shortages.

But lets say your hypothesis is true.  Genetically modified foods can increase food production, has been proven safe by all organizations, but the greenies are against that as well.