How often do you lose to 2 and 3 outers in Texas Hold Em?

Question

I consider myself to be very unlucky. And it follows me wherever I play, whether it's online or live.

So I'm just curious.as to how much everyone else loses to these 3, 2 and even 1 outers.

Sometimes it seems the percentages to win are the exact opposite.

So, percentage wise,.....

What percent of the time do you lose to 3 outers:

What percent of the time do you lose to 2 outers?

How many times have you lost to the 1 and only card they could possibly get to win?

For me....

3 outers:lose about 40-50% of the time

2 outers lose about 25-30% of the time

and lost to 1 outers about 20 + times, i'm seriously losing track.

Does this seem high? How is it for you?

Answer 1

I doubt very seriously you are loosing those percentages.  I am sure it seems that way, but I promise, it ain't happening.  But, if you are, you certainly aren't protecting your hands and you are letting them draw out on you.  

With that being said, you might be loosing more lately (bad run) but in the long run your statistical losses are no different from anyone elses in that situation. Look at all the hands played to the river and folded by your opponents after a river bet, those are all the ones you are winning against a low number of outs (I am sure y ou aren't including those) , you are only seeing the two or three outers that are hitting, and not seeing the ones that ain't.

Answer 2

I lose to 2 outers 5% of the time because I am a 95% to 5% favorite over a 2-outer.

I lose to 3 outers 8% of the time because I am a 92% to 8% favorite over 3-outers.

It seems like you lose to them a lot because you are only seeing that they hit a 2-outer on you when they beat you. When they don't beat you, you don't see their cards some times and you don't know that they had a 2-outer.

Also, if you are playing on the internet, anything goes! You will see many more hands per hour so it will seem like you are getting bad beat more often.

Answer 3

As you play more frequently the incidence of these bad beats should come close to their statistical likelihood.  Also I find people remember their bad beats.  In a cash game 6 months ago I lost $300 on a hand when the other guy got runner runner AA for quads to beat my full house - you never forget those, but do forget the times the other guy folds to your value bets.

Also, playing online means you play a lot more hands per hour, and people call with more dubious hands online.  So my advice is - play solid poker, at the highest stakes you feel comfortable with (as this means less bad calls) and preferably in brick-and-mortar casinos.

Answer 4

On the turn:

3 outs- 14%

2 outs- 9%

River:

3- 7%

2- 5%

You probably win more than you think you do.  People remember bad beats, not hands that they're supposed to win.  If you truly lose as much as you do, you're not calculating the outs right.  You're also probably not betting hard enough or playing marginal hands in the wrong situations.

Answer 5

I lose to 3 outers about 12% of the time, 2 outers about 8%, and 1 outers about 4%.   There is no way that you are losing to 3 outers 40-50% of the time, it just feels like that.  I don't care what the conspiracy theorist nutjobs say, any reputable poker site is running good and legit software and the cards are sufficiently randomized.  I play a couple of hours a day and have not seen any evidence to the contrary.  The fact of the matter is, most people who complain about bad beats in online poker are actually BAD PLAYERS who constantly end up in coin flip situations, at best.  They loss their bankroll and blame it on rigged software when in actuality, they really have now idea what they are doing or what they are talking about.  Bottom line, no hand in poker is a lock.  h**l, AA vs. 22 is only a 81% favorite.  That means 22 wins almost 1 of every 5 hands, that's a lot if you actual think about it.

Answer 6

If you're playing online it's a phuckin' joke all the bad beats.  They do that to make it exciting or help the retards or some c**p.  The cards DO NOT come out randomly online, I don't care what anybody says.  I still made a little profit but got so annoyed, I just quit.  Real life is different though.  The odds hold up in my opinion.  You're just going through some bad luck right now.  And we tend to remember our bad beats more and forget all the times they don't suck out on us.  So my final answer is:  Online is a joke and live games are real, just streaky.