How soon recession will come?

Question

Now every body is talking about recession, food safety etc. the SUNAMI is around the corner. I would like to have everybody,s view on how soon the recession will start or is it allredy started? Further how long it will take to rebound.

Answer 1

I believe recession is here but the Bush administration will not admit it. How long will it take to rebound? Well the sooner someone ADMITS we are in fact in a recession, the sooner we can devote our energy to coming out. The first step to recovery is to admit that you have a problem. It seems like most of the country can see it (including Bush) but he will stop short of admitting it. I mean come on, who wants to be known as the President who started a questionable war, failed Katrina victims, did not progress in war, experienced higher than ever gas prices, foreclosures across the country, tremendous job loss, auto industry in jeopardy, outsourcing to China movement and put the USA into a recession? That won't look good on any-ones resume. I am not saying he is the cause of all of these events, but the world will not care. It was all done under his watch; so he will get the blame. Recession means: a going back; withdrawal; a temporary falling out of business activity. Sound familiar?

Answer 2

I bet we see decent growth a year from now, but I think we are just slowing down for now.  We might see a negative GDP growth over the summer, but I bet by the winter the domestic market will be more active, and the global market is what is keeping our heads above water right now.  Our exports continue to be more affordable, so the global export growth should continue.

Answer 3

Wow! Even the smartest person in the world can't answer this one perfectly... on how soon....

Hmmmmmm.....

I think the man above me has a point telling about the USA. Becasue a recession looming for the US could affect countries all over the world that rely on exporting to the world’s biggest economy...  and the the fact remains that the US is a top trading partner for many countries in the world, and even states that have little contact with US markets depend on countries that will feel the pinch of frugal American buyers...

I just read it on the net, maybe this can help a bit >>

Mexico and Canada: Living next door to world’s biggest economy has its advantages, but it has big drawbacks, too.

China: The world’s fastest-growing economy can’t help but be affected when the world’s largest economy slows down, since China relies on exports to the United States as one of its main sources of growth.

Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea: China gets raw materials such as timber and rubber from Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia and Malaysia. Other East Asian countries, like Taiwan and South Korea, send component parts to the mainland, which are then assembled into finished products that are shipped to the United States. Both groups of exporters are likely to fall—and fall hard—if a drop in Chinese exports to the United States leads to less Chinese demand for these goods and raw materials throughout Asia. Keep an eye on metals, coal, and food products in particular.

Latin America: Chile’s got copper; Brazil’s got minerals; Argentina’s got livestock and feed. They’ll have to scrounge to sell these and other commodities elsewhere if the United States and China isn’t buying as much as before. Prices of commodities could fall by 20 to 30 percent in a U.S. recession followed by a sharp economic slowdown.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania: They all run large deficits, are experiencing excessive credit booms and housing bubbles, and have an overvalued currency. If capital dries up because of the global credit crunch, it could lead to deep financial woes for these smaller European economies: Households that borrowed Swiss francs or Euros to finance their mortgages could go bankrupt and, in turn, local banks could go belly up.

Britain, France, and Germany: As a recession in the United States takes hold, the fall in U.S. demand will mean lower exports by European companies, as well as lower sales and profits for European firms—such as BMW, Unilever, and others—that produce everything from cars to consumer products in the United States. A weaker dollar means that the value—in euros—of European investments in the United States will suffer a major capital loss. High oil prices won’t help, either. And the deflation of housing bubbles in Britain, France, Spain, and elsewhere will slow down growth across the continent.

Japan: The Japanese economy is perpetually anemic, always on the borderline between growth and recession, between inflation and deflation. A deep U.S. recession will likely tip Japan over the edge, and into a recession of its own. Most of Japan’s economic growth in the last few years has been driven by external demand for its goods (such as consumer electronics, cars, etc.), net exports with a weak yen. Domestic private consumption has been weak, as incomes and wage growth have remained flat. And, as one of the world’s largest energy importers, oil hovering at $100 a barrel will make it hard for Tokyo to shake off its economic malaise any time soon.

The United States: Ironically, some parts of the U.S. economy will be the biggest winner. For example, a weaker dollar means that the export competitiveness of American trade partners will be reduced while U.S. competitiveness will receive a boost. American firms will benefit from more exports to the rest of the world. Sharply lower home prices are bad news for current home owners but good news to those renters who will now find buying a house more affordable.

Importers in Europe, Japan, and China: A U.S. recession and global economic slowdown will eventually lead to a sharp fall in the price of oil, energy, and other commodities. So expect the heavy importers in these areas—particularly Europe, Japan, and China—to find a silver lining amidst the storm.

European Shoppers: American goods may have never been so cheap for people with euros in their pockets. If you have visited New York City recently, you may have noticed the swarm of European tourists hunting for bargains from a weak dollar. Expect these European crowds to grow even larger as the savings on luxury goods, clothes, and shoes climbs higher and higher. It may also put a smile on the face of a few American retailers, too.