How soon will fusion energy be reality?

Question

I've frequently read that fusion fusion energy could be developed as soon as 2035. Will the oil crises pressure mankind to develop fusion reactors faster in the next couple of decades? It seems to me that fusion energy will be the ultimate energy source of the future. Meaning, it will be plentiful enough to override every other technological energy source once it is here.

Answer 1

Well, there's realy two issues here.  

First, we do not know when--or if, for that matter, fusion will be devleoped to the point of being a practical energy source.  You cannot predict how long it takes to do basic science research or truely new technological development.  The only kind of technology you can set a timetable on is when you are designing something you already know how to build.  

In the case of fusion--we don't yet know how to build such a powerplant.  Or even if its practical.

Now-your other issue.  Granted, fusion would potentially be a great power source.  But we dont need it to generate power--a lot more than we do now--without using obsolete technologies like coal and oil.

We have technologies to do that now--technologies we know how to build.  Technological advances make it possible to build nuclear power plants ta tare cheaper--and safe.  Solar energy is still borderline as to cost, but that cost is fallling rapidly.  We have wind power, tidal power.  Etc.

Fusion-when it comes, will be a valuable resource.  Its not going to "override" all other technologies, unless we are stupid enough to allow another monopoly cartel to control it the way the oil/coal companies control the energy industry today.

Answer 2

By the time fusion energy will be ready and cost effective (2050-2060), solar energy will be so dirt cheap that all research efforts in fusion will have been wasted.

(By the way, fusion still produces nuclear wastes, perhaps less than fission, but sill does).

Answer 3

Quite possibly never.  We've been fooling with controlled fusion for better than fifty years without a great deal of progress.  It was going to be a reality within fifteen years when I decided not to take a graduate electrical engineering course on the subject in the fall of 1980.  

Just looking at it as a skeptical engineer, the whole concept looks something like a blind alley.  Even the most basic fusion reactors have been complex and exceedingly difficult to manage, and of course they've never come near to producing as much energy as they consume.  

We got seriously distracted by cold fusion and the Farnsworth reactor, neither of which seem to be reproducible and both of which gave the whole field a rotten reputation.  If I was a project manager at a research lab I'd probably steer clear of fusion energy projects unless I was guaranteed a great sum of no-strings-attached money, plus a certain amount of anonymity.

Answer 4

Fusion energy is a reality.  Controlled fusion is the problem.  Go to fast and BOOM it makes a mess.  We will figure out how to properly control it once oil gets high enough for it to be profitable.  The way gas is goijng right now i suspect it ill be done by 2015 or maybe 2025.