How to Choose a Formula 1 Winner
Betting on a Formula 1 race might seem quite simple: pick a fast driver and hope that he finishes first. However, things are often not quite that simple. There are plenty of subtle nuances that go into handicapping auto racing that are often lost on less-experienced bettors. Those who have been around the sport have an innate understanding of the factors at play which can inform a smart bet and help steer them away from making a losing bet.
If you were to ask a novice to pick who was going to win a Formula 1 race on any given race, they might select the person who is leading the Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship heading into the race. And while that wouldn’t be a bad choice – clearly whoever is leading the world title chase is a solid driver – it might not be the best option. Looking beyond the most basic information and researching trends and other important data can help a sports bettor make a winning call when it comes to betting on Formula 1 racing.
As a general rule, Formula 1 tracks are contested at the same tracks every year. This gives potential bettors a great opportunity to review the past performances of drivers at the upcoming track in order to determine possible sleepers to win a race or get a podium finish. Certain drivers do well at certain tracks because they are great fits for their particular driving styles while other drivers struggle on those same tracks.
It’s also a good idea to review a team’s performance at a track – this can sometimes be more important than how a driver fared a track several years ago when driving for another team. Driver statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt – a driver finishing fifth in a race while competing for a second-rate team can be more impressive than a rival finishing fourth while running for an elite team. In addition, teams possess valuable set-up information which carry over after drivers leave and are replaced. Chances are that if a team has dominated a track in the past that they will continue to have success even if the drivers have changed.
Looking at results within a season will often give you the best sense of how drivers might perform on a certain race day. While overall performance is important, it’s a good idea to look at the trend of recent results as well.
For example, Fernando Alonso currently sits fifth in the Drivers’ Championship heading into the German Grand Prix. However, his form has been terrible in recent weeks and it would be tough to justify betting on him to suddenly reverse his results and get a win. Meanwhile, Nico Rosberg sits one spot below Alonso in the standings but has been surging in recent weeks, making him a potentially stronger option for a race victory.
Drivers’ Championship standings can also be misleading because while a greater emphasis has been placed on rewarding race victories, it’s still a championship largely determined by consistency. However, you will likely be betting on someone to win the race, meaning that drivers who either win or fail to finish can be better bets than someone who consistently brings their car home safe but rarely contends for a win.
Finally, it’s important to look at results from similar style tracks when determining how a driver might finish in a certain race. Although every track is different, there are certain shared characteristics at certain course – some tracks favour cars which have great front-line speed while other tracks might require more braking and cornering. For example, a driver who did well at the tight street course of Monaco might have also had success at another street course like the European Grand Prix in the streets of Valencia, Spain.
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