How to win the Formula One Season in 2010
The Formula One teams of today are working extremely hard and trying beyond imagination to give their drivers the much needed success on the track. Staying under the restrictions and limitations of the FIA, these teams are making every possible development and are leaving no stone unturned. The battle at the front is always much more intense and the engineers in the Formula One factories and laboratories experience the same amount of heat that drivers do on the track. However, all these efforts translate into one thing – race victory. And there’s no other alternative to securing a championship than scoring victories and achieving podium finishes.
In the past, we’ve had all kinds of world championships with drivers winning the titles with varying amount of victories. In 1958, Mike Hawthorn won the drivers’ championship by winning only a single race out of the eleven in the season. While on the other hand, Michael Schumacher clinched 13 out of 18 races in 2004 on his way to the glory. So the question is, how many times does a driver have to experience the wonderful moments of listening to his national anthem before he runs away with the crown?
Before the current year, the sport has so far hosted 60 championships from 1950 to 2009. We take a look at the Formula One statistics ever since the competition began and try to find out what is it that Hamilton, Button, Webber, Vettel and Alonso would have to do to better their chances of winning the 2010 championship.
How important is first race of the season? More than most people would’ve guessed. In earlier editions of Formula One, this may be different but in the race of today, setting the pace in the first race of the season goes a long way in confirming just that. In the sixties, seventies and eighties, a victory in the first race didn’t mean much. During that period, it happened only three times or so that the driver to win the first race of the season went ahead and became the champion. Mario Andretti was the only driver in the seventies who won the first race and the championship. This happened in 1978. In the remaining 9 seasons of the decade, the drivers with perfect starts didn’t find much luck later in the season. Despite the low first-win-to-championship ratio, exactly 50% drivers with wins in first race of the season lifted the trophy in the history of the sport.
But Formula One is all about change. During the last two decades it has become extremely important to win the first race. And during the last 20 years, 16 drivers that won the championship also won the season opener that year. And guess what, Fernando Alonso was our race winner in Bahrain this year. McLaren’s Managing Director Jonathan Neale has said that it’s too early to write off Alonso as a Formula One driver. Maybe he is already aware of this statistic.
Podium finishes are equally important and while a driver is uncatchable with his race pace, podiums ensure he doesn’t get too far away. And with slightly higher number of podiums instead of retirements last year, we could have Vettel as the champion instead of Button. And guess what happened in 2007 and 2008!
Out of 820 races to date, world champions have made it to the podium on 520 occasions in the seasons when they became champions. This means that if, during a season, a driver finishes 63% of his races on the podium, he is a serious contender for the championship. For this season, this number would mean that the driver should be on the podium on 12 occasions in 19 races. Both Button and Hamilton have made 5 podiums finishes, followed by Webber and Vettel with 4. During the last 10 seasons, the champions have made it to the podium in 72% of all their races and as per the latest trends, this year’s champion would have to be there on 14different occasions.
While podium finishes give a boost to a driver’s championship, there’s only thing that ensures Formula One domination – race victories! Out of 820 races in Formula One history, 319 have been won by the champion of that year. Thus on average, a driver has to win 39% of a season’s races to become champion. This would mean that a driver with 7 races this season would stand a good chance of winning. Hamilton, Button, Vettel and Webber all have two victories to their name so far.
With such a cut throat competition this year, 39% victories and 63% podiums seem a lot as Button and Hamilton, who stand the best chance of matching the historical averages, have so far had 22% of their race converted into victories and 56% to podium finishes. Without a single dominant team or driver at half way point in the current season, 7 victories and 12 podiums would definitely ensure success.
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