How will the stock market do in the next 6 months?

Question

My opinion= when Obama is elected the liberal media will rest and gloss over the health of the U.S. economy, such as with the Clinton Years. So after the election the economy will (appear to have improved).

Answer 1

Don't listen to the sheep! Facts are facts...

We flirted with a bear market and are right at the edge. A recession is often categorized by a 10%+ decline in the market and a bear market as 20%+. Right now, we are about 20% down from highs. Also note that it is said the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy and leads by about 6 months on average. Considering we are trading near our lows roughly, we are still very weak.

The recent bounce was a "short squeeze" because the FED literally didn't allow for people to short Financial stocks, so many shorts covered their positions. And because oil prices came in a bit, we saw a bid in the market. But we are still in an uptrend for commodities and a downtrend for equities.

FACTS:

1) Many "experts" don't expect a housing rebound until 2010 now (date keeps being pushed back). We are experiencing the worst housing recession since the great depression.

2) Oil nearly tripled inside of 18 months for one of the steepest rises in price ever!

3) Many regional banks face insolvency still

4) Credit spreads are still ridiculously wide and have not thinned even after the recent market bounce

Bottom Line: We still have a tremendous amount of downside and haven't nearly seen the worst of it. I do not expect a bottom until at least the 1st quarter of Fiscal 2009. The new presidency won't affect the market for at least another 6 months, so until then we are still in the same trend with the same sentiment. Don't listen to the sheep who claim we've seen the bottom on every single dip we take. Remember these are the same people who said we weren't going to see any more bank write downs about 6 months ago and 3 months ago...

Answer 2

In a recession, the time to invest is NOW. Buy when stock prices are lower and have patience. Once it rebounds, and it will, you can reap the rewards from the rebound in the economy.

Answer 3

Dam if you don't sound like a Republican...every thing that Moneyneversleeps says plus the Feds have given the banks, Fannie and Freddy $1.33trillion and more to come. Just watch the other banks that fail. The Fed won't be able to protect them all because we can't keep borrowing money from China, Russia, the list goes on. As credit tightens, cash will be king. The mkt will be down or flat for the next 18 months. Oh yea guess who gets to pay back that $1.3T yep us tax payers.AND we didn't have a deficit in the Clinton years.

Answer 4

The stock market is only going to go lower, we are in a recession/ buy gold