I've heard you can predict how a horse will run by his appearance. They all look the same to me, Help!?

Question

I've heard you can predict how a horse will run by his appearance. They all look the same to me, Help!?

Answer 1

By his appearance, it means behavior (sweating, acting up, etc), not by what color he/she is, etc.

Answer 2

Well, they should look like they are in good physical condition the day of the race. But you can't pick winners by appearance alone! You need to look at the last few starts, especially the most recent one. Did the horse win his last race? If so, his chances are better that he is at his best and can win this one. You also need to consider the track surface. Does this horse run well in the mud, on Polytrack, turf? If he has never run on turf before and today's race is on turf he is a bigger gamble. What surface is he running on in today's race? You also should look at recent workouts. Betting is a lot of research with a little guesswork and a lotta luck.

Answer 3

TRY TO BET ON THE HORSE THAT IS NOT SWEATING, OR

HAS WHITE SOAP BETWEEN HIS OR HER HIND LEGS...

Answer 4

The appearance of a horse in the paddock and post parade does more to tell you what horse is UNLIKELY to win.  I use it as an "eliminator" to narrow down the field of competitors.

As others have noted, you don't want to see a horse that is "washing out" (e.g., sweating profusely) in the paddock or post parade, because that indicates a horse that may be unfit or too "wired" to relax and run a considered race.  "Kidney sweat", which is the foamy-appearing sweat between a horse's hind legs, is a bad sign, because a horse has to be really worked up to start foaming down there.

I look for signs that a horse is unhappy or resistant to going to post:  a horse with his head up high, throwing his head around, bouncing off his front end, or otherwise acting up.  At the same time, it's a bad sign if a horse appears dull or uninterested in things that are going on.  Horses that are rough-coated might not be in the best shape, although there are times of the year (late spring or early fall) when a horse is either shedding or growing a winter coat and can look less sleek.

A horse that seems to need a lot of warming up or one that takes a very abbreviated warm-up during the post parade is a horse you might want to pass on.  Some horses, particularly older horses that have raced a lot, are somewhat arthritic and might need a lot of loosening up to do well.  Other horses are fragile and the trainer might instruct the rider to minimize what he does in the pre-race warmup.

If you're a frequent race-goer and know the horses well by sight, and can spot equipment changes that don't necessarily get announced to the public, you might factor this into your handicapping.  A change in bit or bridle equipment (e.g., addition of something like a figure-8 noseband or a change from a plain snaffle to a ring bit) might give you an indication that the trainer is using something to try to get a headstrong horse to pay more attention to the rider.  

Mostly, though, you're just trying to spot the horses that are unfit or who are wasting energy, or who are telling the world that they aren't happy going to the post, because these are horses that most likely will not run well.

Answer 5

Looking at a horse is an acquired art.  You have to know what you are looking at, why you are looking at it and why it is or is not a factor in performance.

Appearance is a large indicator in how a horse will run, but it is not a certainty.  For every 'must' or 'must not' there is always an exception to the general rule.      

You want to see a horse in good physical health.  Bright eye, glossy, dappled coat with a fair amount of flesh on his bones.  Fat is fuel, so I always want to see a little on every horse I run.  

With Thoroughbreds, relaxation is a good indicator.  A horse that is "washed out" (sweating profusely on the neck and between the legs) is very nervouse is often said to have "run his race in the paddock."

The reverse is true with Quarter Horses.  Generally, the one that is the craziest, most aggressive in the paddock is usually a good bet.

[I mainly deal with TB's, but have run the occassional QH.  I insist on good behavior from ALL of my horses.  I personally do not believe and have repeatedly proven, it is possible for a QH to stand quietly in the paddock and still run a great race.]

In either case, you want to see a horse that looks healthy and alert.  Some horses just have a superior look to them.  They stand out and you can't help but notice them.

If you want to learn to read or see a horse, you need to start looking at them.  Go to the track and watch them in the paddock, the post parade and then watch how they run.  If you can't get to the track, watch them on TV.  There are several cable/sattelite stations that broadcast horseracing 24/7.

Answer 6

I'm actually very good at picking horses just by what they look like.  The only time I've made a bet at the track was on a horse whose appearance struck me...  he just looked great...  so a made a bet and won.  I like to watch TVG which is always races involving nobodies (claimers or maidens mostly) and since i know absolutely nothing about the horses, all i have to go on is their appearance...  but even then, I can usually pick which horses will come in in the top 4 or 5 just because I can look at them and tell.  It's a nice talent to have since I can take a longshot and know that it's going to come in in the money.

Anyway, it's a hard talent to develop...  I work with horses quite a lot, so i can look at a horse and tell if it's a winner or not...  particularly on specific days...  I just look at the horse and decide whether it's fit or not...

one really good thing to look for is whether the horse is sweating more than the others...  if it's a hot day the horse is going to sweat, but if you see a lot of foamy white stuff on the horse's neck where the reins are rubbing, it's a good hint that the horse is already too hot and worked up to be able to run a good race...  but look at it in proportion to the other horses...  when it's 100 degrees, they're all going to be sweating.  also, don't mistake water for sweat...  some of the horses will get water poured on them before coming out for the post parade...  that can be a good thing to cool them down...  usually you can tell whether it's water or sweat because the water would usually be dry by the end of the post parade on a sunny day whereas the horse would probably just get sweaty-er as the post parade went on if it's sweat.

That's the easiest one to look for...  the others are harder...  you actually have to know what to look for in the horses body...  you want a horse who is not fat but also doesn't look underfed...  it should appear powerful...  you want a horse that looks powerfully built...  the horse's front shoulder should be chiseled...  I like to look at the shoulder and the hip to decide whether I like the horse.  If you cant see some definition in the shoulder, either the horse isn't strong enough or there's too much chub covering the muscle...  either one is not as good as if you can see the definition.  for the hip, you want a horse with a big powerful hind end...  the horse uses the back legs to push itself forward...  it shouldn't be big as in wide, but as in long (as if you're looking at the horses side).  you want the croup (the line from the top of the hip<after the withers it's the highest point on the horse's back> to the horses tail) to be long and curved...  a sharp short croup means the horse doesn't have a long stride...  shorter strides mean the horse has to move his legs faster to keep up.  The easiest thing to look at in the hip is a line which is kind of another piece of muscle definition...  if you look at the horses side, there should be a line you can see which is kinda parallel with the horse's buttock (the back part of the hip...  where the tail is).  the more muscle definition you see, the stronger and fitter the horse is.  Usually, the fitter the horse is, the better shot it has at winning.

it's a hard talent to acquire and it's especially hard if you're only looking at horses on the track from afar...  i know if a horse looks healthy or not because I work with horses so much, but you might not be able to tell from afar without being around the horse enough to see how it feels.