IF THE FORECAST SAYS THAT THERE IS 30% Chance?

Question

IF THE FORECAST SAYS THAT THERE IS 30% Chance

precipitations DO YOU THINK IT WILL RAIN?

ALSO WHAT PERCENTAGE DOES IT HAVE TO BE TO BE SURE ITS GOING TO RAIN?

THANK YOU

Answer 1

No, it won't rain if it says 30% . In my area,

I've seen 20% chance of rain and sure enough it comes

down in torrents. After the rain, though, the air is cool and the smell of fresh rain is really cool.

Answer 2

It's most likely not going to rain because it's more likely that it'll not rain but it could happen when it's only 30%. I'm usually sure it'll rain once it gets to 60% but I've seen it at 80% and sometimes it didn't rain.

Answer 3

I figure the weather men are never right so i just don't bother

Answer 4

I doubt its gonna rain.  There is a 60% chance of rain today for my area, and it hasn't rained all day.

Answer 5

not really. you do the calculations.

Answer 6

Some storms are cells, others are broad fronts and still others blanket the area.  Predictions for a moving cell would be like dragging a rotating sprinkler across a lawn by its hose following someone else's arbitrary instructions.  You know that a certain percent of the lawn will see some 'rain' but can't tell exactly where (and it may develop that the hose isn't even turned on as the sprinkler passes).  It isn't always easy and some weather guidance may be better than none.  Weather usually moves with the prevailing winds (although there may be circulation around a high or low pressure center) and if it is raining everywhere the storm is coming from likely there will be a 100% chance of rain when it arrives.  It may still be difficult to predict how many inches of rain will fall because storms may stall and drop lots of rain.

Answer 7

A chance is a chance. It could or it couldn't rain. Only mother nature really knows.

Answer 8

I figure if they say 30% chance of rain, it means a 70% chance that it won't.