If 1998 was a cold year instead of a super hot outlier year due to El Nino?

Question

Would skeptics be able to claim that there is no warming trend still?

I find it amazing that skeptics can twist everything around with a straight face. They insist that the record heat spike of 1998 disproves GW (despite 2000-2005 being hotter than any year in the 1990's other than 1998), as if CO2 forcing was the *only* factor involved in global temperature. They require a cartoonish linear trendline to be convinced. Despite other recent 10 year periods where the record temp was not broke (and the warming trend continued) , deniers require the hottest year on record a measely 10 years ago to disappear in order to be persuaded that there is still a warming trend.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

Answer 1

Is it any worse that alarmists fail to acknowledge that 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007 were also El-Nino years? Or is it even worse that alarmists fail to acknowledge that the early to mid 90's were cooler than normal because of a major volcanic event?

Answer 2

Hey Warmers..... I have an idea.  Since you are so passionate in your belief that man causes all climate change..... YOU agree to pick up the tab for reversing...fixing....massaging ....petting.....whatever the remedy of the week is.... the alleged problem.  As long as I am not forced to pay more for food....taxes....etc., then you folks can do whatever you want.  Just don't drag me into your little make-believe world..... Okay??.... Okay!!

Answer 3

People are very good at finding ways to believe what they want to believe.

If 1998 were not such an abnormally strong El Nino year, the deniers would not have any argument.  As it is, their primary argument (that there has been no warming since 1998) is completely false.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;...

But what more can you expect from a group who answer more questions with references to Al Gore than with scientific data?  Who claim the Earth's temperature record is unreliable yet believe we know for certain that Pluto is warming?  Who claim that global warming is due to the Sun even though solar output hasn't increased in 30 years?

They're not interested in truth, science, or facts.  They're just interested in whatever it takes to maintain denial.

As it so happens, RealClimate did a recent entry on a paper which removed the ENSO signal from the temperature record.  The 1998 spike disappeared, but the upward temperature trend remained the same.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/arc...

Answer 4

When your "understanding" of science is based on your political ideology (as is the case for many of the doubters around here) it wouldn't matter where 1998 (or any other year or years) fell onto the long-term warming trend line.  They'll keep falling back on:

It's the sun! The instrumentation isn't accurate! It's cosmic rays! We can't trust those scientists! It's natural! It was hotter before!  Or any other faux explanation for why humans can't possibly be responsible.

Answer 5

If the 20th century hadn't been preceded by a several-hundred-years-long "little ice age" would alarmists be able to claim that there was a warming trend at all?

Not credibly.

Answer 6

"...deniers require the hottest year on record a measely 10 years ago to disappear in order to be persuaded that there is still a warming trend."

When the argument FOR AGW is based upon a "measely" 30 years, you bet your sweet potato I'm going to point to a 10 year cooling trend as a rebuttal!

Answer 7

I'm skeptical this whole mess has anything to do with temperatures at all.

The UN and Al Gore have zero credibility with me.

Answer 8

That is not true-- we say that since 1998 there has not been any warming -- but a cooling trend-- that's about it for now.

Answer 9

Arron, but even then 1998 was a couple of degrees cooler overall than the hottest year on record of 1934 before the Co2 spike. Are you saying the extra Co2 protected and insulated the whole earth from getting even warmer than it actually did.