If Pedroia gets 1 hit in his next 15 at bats, should we exclude those at bats from his average?

Question

It's an outlier! It doesn't fit the trend - his average is about .300. I wouldn't expect another 1 for 15 slump for quite a while.......

Answer 1

I like where you're going with this, but I think hockey would've been the appropriate analogy...

"Hockey stick, hockey stick!" <= in hushed, coughing voice

Answer 2

Analogy fits perfectly.

Pedroia the Destroya - just like the Global Warming idiocy.

Answer 3

Have you ever taken a basic statistics course?

Those 15 times at bat should definitely be included in his record.  Knowing whether or not this level of performance would be expected frequently or exceeded (on the poor end) in the near future would depend on his consistency, # times at bat, and any extenuating circumstances (e.g. injury, illness).

To bring this analogy into the realm of global warming, trying to make a big issue out of 1998 would be the equivalent of trying to make a big issue out of 15-times at bat.  Neither has any significant impact on long-term performance or temperature trends.

Answer 4

Your point is against most of the deniers, who try to pretend that the beginning of time was 1998, and the entire pattern up until then can be dismissed because it hasn't broke through that ceiling since. Never mind that this has happened multiple times in the past few decades, they start time where they want to. If you take any set of data like, say, ESP card data, You can if you want to, search for and find a highly improbable streak to claim that there is ESP. But cherry picking a start time to support a case is laughable. Over time it will come out to chance levels.

Answer 5

Wrong section, Randall...

Edit:

It's called GLOBAL warming guys - there's no point in using REGIONAL analogies if only a select minority know what you're talking about!

Besides, statistically, you can argue that it's 1998 that should be excluded: It is a common practice to disregard the highest and lowest values in cases where the data is not considered 100% reliable (which is what deniers suggest) so see what happens when you do that with average annual temps - the warming trend becomes more obvious!