If Russia and Georgia went to war over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, would the Russian refugees flee abroad?

Question

I can bet that Georgians would be scattered all over Western Europe(Like Serbs and Bosnians and other europeans that was in a war).

But what about the Russians? Would they flee abroad? Or just move to a safer place within Russia? Like Saint Petersburg or Moscow. Just away from the south.

Answer 1

I believe that there will be no russian refugees at all. South Osetia have recently sent 2000 of its children away from Tsinhvali to Northern Osetia, that is a russian territory. But it is a temporary matter till the end of shooting.

I doubt very much that Russia will let Georgians to enter South Osetia, but it will not attack Georgia itself too.

So not many refugees are expected in that region now. Not russians nor georgians.

Answer 2

The future is now because Russia has invade Georgia.  Your answer is that the Russian people have been fleeing the 2nd coming of Stalin in the form of Putin and the country is losing population.  A war would just be a good excuse to get a visa.

Answer 3

I think there are serious battles over there AS WE SPEAK. It is not an all out war I guess but I think it is pretty serious. I agree with the previous answer by "mccain' (sorry dont see the name). It got so much publicity that Russia will not be able to do nasty things they did there and other regions in 1990s.

Answer 4

I dont belive,cause Russia is much stronger,but if US help Georgia maybe it could happen

Newstr2! You are right! But I will add Kurds in Turkey, Serbs in Bosnia, Basks in Spain and so on...they want their state,but they dont have US support

Answer 5

The world. You deceive! World mass media conduct propagation of a false information. Russia DID NOT ATTACK Georgia! 07.08.2008 at 22:00 Georgia has attacked South Ossetia. At 3:30 08.08.2008 tanks of the Georgian armies have entered into city Tskhinvali. Artillery bombardment all the day long proceeded, fights with use of tanks and heavy combat material, both against ossetic armies, and against peace inhabitants were conducted. 2000 civil people already were lost. The Russian peacemakers have arrived to South Ossetia in the evening 08.08.2008 for settlement of the conflict and prompting of the world in republic and protection of the Russian citizens living on territory of South Ossetia. Georgia has attacked South Ossetia on eve of Olympiad, it is top of cruelty and cynicism. We shall tell is not present to WAR!!!

Answer 6

I don't think that Russian forces will actually occupy Georgia (maybe they will penetrate few miles deep to stop Georgian rocket attacks). Now that I wrote about the rocket attacks, it reminded me about Palestinians attacking Israel with similar rocket attacks. We don't seem to support Palestinians attacking Israel (and rightly so), but we largely ignore the fact that Georgians did the same thing to South Ossetia.

Answer 7

Well, Russia might play a very important role in the conflict but I doubt that they will dare to engage in a direct aggression like in chechnya. They are more likely to play some sort of Proxy war in which they dont seem to be directly involved.

It is also unlikely that even if Georgia will "lose" those regions Russia will penetrate any further inside Georgia. At the same time the international reaction will be very swift and I dont believe that certain people will be able to get away with what  they were able to in early 1990s. The world has changed and the regions receives a serious attention. Even though western Europe is distancing itself and tries to be nice to Russia, that does not mean that they will close their eyes on direct aggression. They are the United State allies after all.

When it comes to the US, even if "peace loving" Democrats will get the White House,  they are unlikely to do Russia a big favor with both Georgia and Ukraine likely to get closer to the west in the nearest future.

I do not believe that there will be an all out war anytime soon. Georgia does not want to scare investors off. On the other hand, Russia is not really as powerful as to not care about damages incurred by the war. At the same time eastern European countries are very likely to block any negotiations between Russia and the EU.