If a Thoroughbred carries 10 lbs less in a 5 furlong race, how should it impact their time?

Question

If you see that a horse is carrying 10 less pounds less weight than it has carried in the past year,all other things being equal, how would you adjust your predictions when handicapping a race?

Answer 1

You have asked 2 questions there. In the UK I believe that Timeform works on the basis of 20lbs to a second at 5 furlongs - although other time "experts" use 15lbs - so 10lbs extra should slow down by half a second. However it does not necessarily follow that 10lbs less will make it half a second  faster as the horse, if it is not so good, may already be running as fast as it can.

The second question is a bit naive, as the proviso "all things being equal cannot apply". Each horse has a handicap rating and if it has been carrying 9 stone when rated 120 and is now asked to carry 8st 4lbs, the horse which carries 9st will have a rating of 130, so you see it is meeting a better class of opposition.

Answer 2

five furlongs is not enough to bother with. i say insignificant!

Answer 3

the theory of time and weight on how it effects horses is not proven by any means.i know some speed rating compilers who do not use weight when assessing the time rating.stopwatch of the racxing post does use weight to add or dedcut points from a horses speed rating,raceform as far asi m aware does not use weight on time based performances.

i forgot how much so many extra pounds should in theory slow a horse down or speed one up,but these are rigid guidlines that treast every horse as one.horses come in all different shapes and sizes.

consider 2 horses ,one skinny at 800 pounds and 1 beast at 1200lbs.say the skinny horse beat the beast by 2 lengths in a prevoius raceboth carrying 8stone .say there are to meet agian,same course distance and going,both horse are consdiered to be fit anf inform. today though they

both carry the same weight but this time 10stone.you would assume they would both replicate there prevoius form,but the skinny horse could struggle to cope with the extra burden whilst the beast could easily not notice he is carrying extra.

also ive have read this in various racing books that it take almost twice as might weight decrease to make it faster than weight increase to slow it down. ie 10lb more slows it down by 4 lengths,but 10lb less only makes 2 lengths faster.this seems to make sense as high weighted horse sin handicaps have a better strike rate than lower weighted ones,teh higher weighted ones are the fatser horse and the handicapper a sgiven them the bigger weights,but it still as not sttopped them winning more oftem than the lwer weighted one.

Answer 4

skk frankk