If fantasy baseball is statistics and mathematics, what is the winning equation?

Question

Are there any constant characteristics amongts the best fantasy baseball? If so, what are they?

Answer 1

statistics don't factor in injuries and the human element of the game - there is partial luck involved too

Answer 2

R + RBI + AVG + HR + SB + W + K > ERA + WHIP + SV

(7-3) victory every week.

Answer 3

c x 1/2(v) + 10000(p) where c= chase utley, v= justin verlander, and p= pure luck!

Answer 4

When looking at hitters, you have to look at many things like track record (three year average, minor league numbers, etc.), strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB), and OPS (on base% + slug%).  And that's just for starters.  For me, a serviceable fantasy hitter should be able to reach a .350 on base, a .450 slug%, which totals an OPS of .800, but there are middle infielders who make their way to fantasy rosters who don't hit for much power so to me, an acceptable .790 OPS is the bare minimum when looking at individual hitters.  Also look for H/BIP, which is base hits per balls in play.  On average, hitters will hit that number close to 30%.  This is a good measurement of how lucky hitters are getting when getting base hits purely because the balls they hit aren't reaching any defensive gloves.  Anything well below 30% can mean a hitter is unlucky.  Anything well above 30% can mean that a hitter is very lucky (this stat works the same way for pitchers except anything well below 30%=lucky pitcher, and anything well above is a very unlucky pitcher).  The first three indicators I mentioned are good when figuring out who the best hitters are.  A guy who can walk as many times as he strikes out (K:BB), who can get on base and hit with a lot of power (OPS), and has the track record of posting great numbers year after year (three year average) are the makings of a good fantasy hitter.  Albert Pujols, after one quarter of play in 2008, had an OPS of well over 1.000, a K:BB slightly below 3.00 (well ahead of anyone among MLB regulars, mind you), and has always had the track record of posting such great numbers.  There's no mystery as to why he's one of the best hitters.

As far as pitchers go, many "experts" will say a good pitcher has a good strikeout rate (K/9), a good strikeout to walk rate (K:BB), and doesn't give up a lot of homeruns (home run rate or HR/9).  However, that's too limited of an approach for my taste.  Just know that a good pitcher is not defined on Wins and ERA, rather, according to me, on the following criteria: K/9 has to be above 7.5, BB/9 has to be below 3.5, Hits/9 has to be below 8.5, HR/9 below 1.20, and the WHIP has to fall below 1.30.  Pitchers don't have to meet all, but most of the criteria.  If there's any stat that a pitcher must, and I mean MUST, reach is that walk rate.  3.5 is a little high for me, but not every pitcher can have pinpoint control.  However, if a pitcher's walk rate is constantly going over 3.5, all he is doing is frustrating his MLB team and the fantasy leaguers who have him on their roster(s).  A major reason why Matt Cain struggles to have a winning record is not because the SF Giants are a horrible team, but when a pitcher has a walk rate of 4.26 like Cain, you're shooting yourself in the foot.  That means, pitchers with high walk rates have to work harder to get outs, which means more pitches thrown in the game, meaning more stress added to your arm, meaning less innings pitched, and meaning less of a chance to getting wins.  You ever wonder why Jon Garland always manages to get close to 13-18 wins/year with subpar stuff?  It's because he manages his walk rate to hover around 2.00.  That's almost the same walk rate as Johan Santana!  Seriously, would you put Garland in the same league as Santana?  No, because Garland can't dominate hitters (read: strikeout), and his hit rate in the last three years is at a horrible 9.5.  Yikes!  Take a guy like Edinson Volquez.  Many people marvel at the season he's having, but he only has a decent K:BB ratio (approximately, he currently has it at 2:1).  After one quarter of play in this 2008 MLB campaign, he had an 11.06 K/9.  Wow!  But why is his K:BB ratio so low?  Because after one quarter of play, he had a walk rate of 5+!  I've been saying all season that his high walk rate will drive owners into madness as the season progresses, but to his credit, Volquez has dropped his BB/9 below 4 now.  Still high, but much better than 5+.  As a Cub fan, and as a guy who kept Kerry Wood on his team almost every year earlier this decade, Wood always had a high walk rate (usually around 4.00) and come September, I was left wondering why my team underperformed again.  

So there's no one equation in fantasy baseball, but there are many things to look at when selecting baseball players for your fantasy roster.  If they ever find a perfect equation that takes away the hard work needed to build a successful fantasy team, then that's the day that everything I have mentioned in this answer becomes obsolete.

Felipe

http://www.ultimatefantasysite.com