If meteorology was as advanced as climatology, couldn't we make picnic plans months in advance?

Question

I always here believers scoff at the meteorology analogy. They say climate and weather are different and just because meteorologists can only predict weather accurately a couple days in advance at best, that doesn't mean climate science can't do much much better.

How are the two fields of study alike?

They both deal with a huge amount of variables.

I would say it would be a no-brainer to say that climate science has to deal with a lot more.

So how can they be so sure their predictions are superior to your average weatherman?

Answer 1

The argument is a red herring.  It's false science to say that no one can predict what the climate will be in 6 months, as that's just weather, but it is possible to accurately know what the climate will be in 50 years.

Make a prediction now, and in 49 years 6 months the prediction will be just 6 months away, so what make it any more accurate than a 6 month prediction?

The answer is simple.....  Say you "know" what will happen in 50 years, and no one can ever hold you accountable for your guess.  And after all, climate forecasting is just a guess.  No one knows if it will be warmer or colder in the future, let alone show you how they came to that conclusion.  You would be just as accurate as the best and brightest climatologist just by flipping a coin.

When people start comparing the climate to the stock market, you know your being conned as the market is a man made tool specifically designed and managed by man to increase in value every year where the climate is a natural and chaotic force that is dependent on the will of many, many variables that we can't even fathom at this time.

Answer 2

They can not. To predict the weather a week in advance even with our technology is impossible to have any real accuracy. Variables mean just that .  

Answer 3

I'd say that that meteorology is more advanced than climate science, but they are trying to do two completely different things.  I mean, it would be really cool if climate science could make the same sorts of predictions as meteorology, e.g. "There will be rain in the afternoon 27 years, two months, and three days from now...." but it can't and doesn't try to. When climate science makes forecasts for decades from now, they aren't looking at at nearly the resolution in time and space that meteorology is.  Just because they don't do that doesn't mean that what they do is not useful, though.

Climate science forecasting tries to answer questions about mean temperature and precipitation, as well as the variances that might be expected from year-to-year (or perhaps decade to decade).

By the way, forecasting in meteorology has greatly improved over the past 15 years or so (same with climate science), so useful forecasting (not perfect, but useful) can be done as much as a week or more in advance.

Answer 4

I can give you pretty good odds that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher in 30 years, but I wouldn't be foolish enough to say that about next month or even next year.  Weather and Climate are the same sort of beasts as short-term & long-term market trends.

Answer 5

I would think that many meteorologists would take offense to some of the comments in this topic.

Their predictions can be checked for accuracy within a few days or months-- climatologist's predictions will be long forgotten when the actual date of the prediction rolls around.

Answer 6

Climate is essentially the long-term average of weather.  On a global scale, it's the long-term average of all weather globally.

It's quite similar to gambling.  On a given bet or over a given day it's very hard to predict if you'll come out ahead.  But if you continually gamble in a casino, the odds are such that you'll almost certainly lose money in the long run.  Sure there are a lot of variables - what games you play, who you're playing against, the odds of the different games, etc.  But it's much easier to make long-term predictions as opposed to trying to predict how you'll do over a couple bets or a couple days.

Answer 7

"MYTH: Accurate weather predictions a few days in advance are hard to come by. Why on earth should we have confidence in climate projections decades from now?

FACT: Climate prediction is fundamentally different from weather prediction, just as climate is different from weather."

It's hard to predict whether there will be sun or not next week, just like it's hard to predict whether you'll be in a good mood next week. You don't know what's going to happen between now and then. But you can predict that if certain things happen to you, like if you get fired, if your lover dumps you, or if you get cancer, your mood will generally be worse in the future and you will have more bad-mood days and less good-mood days. Your mood next week is different from your mood in the next few years, just as weather and climate are different.