If statistically, one third of All favourite Horses win, what probability will the favourite of a race win ?

Question

In statistic above, is probability of Favourite to win related to the probability that a third of all Favourite winning in all the races?

Answer 1

I truly believe probability has nothing to do with winning horses. It depends on so many factors, the trainer, the rider, the horse and of course all the hidden interests in a race track. How is it possible that sometimes a horse that has a 20/1 odd can win the race facing 1/2 horses.  believe there are many events that make horse racing unpredictable. Of course if you always bet on the favorite horse, your chances of winning increase, but you don't make money out of favorites. Money is normally on horses you wouldn't think could win.

That is why horse racing is such a profitable business for race track owners, sportsbooks and odd-makers.

Answer 2

According to the infinite samples Baysian statistics are actually based on, ther is no precise answer.  That is why they call it gambling!

Answer 3

How does the saying go," there are lies,damned lies and statistics!!"

Basiclly the favourite in a Non Handicap race has a much higher hance of winning,sometimes particular races over a ten year period can have seven or eight winning favourites. The norm however is around 40-50%

Handicap races, being what they are, horses "handicapped" by weight so in theory they should all finish in a line, are a different thing. In these races you will normally be lucky to hit 15%

So as per your question..the chances very much depend upon what type of race you are looking at. Bookies would love you to take the overall perspective and include handicaps in your favourite betting....but of course you no longer will.. will you?

Answer 4

Science would consider it "Independant Probability" because all races are an individual and have no effect on each other.  I'm a strong believer in natural Probability though, Example In Roulette if 7 reds have hit in a row, i'm betting Black. Even though it's Independant Probability it's just Natural Probability to me.