If you believe the planet hasn't warmed in 10 years, does that mean you believe it will never cool?

Question

Many global warming 'skeptics' continue to argue that the planet hasn't warmed since 1998. However, any statistical analysis proves otherwise. For example, a 5-year running mean:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

or a simple best fit line:

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/t1998.jpg

The only way to argue that the planet has stopped warming is to cherrypick the previous warmest year - 1998 - and say "well there hasn't been a hotter year, so the warming has stopped!". This argument only appeals to a person's "common sense", since any statistical test disproves it.

By this logic, however, will the planet ever cool? After all, in 1978 the average global temperature was 0.7°C colder than today. So if the planet suddenly cools 0.7°C, won't the skeptics have to argue that there's been no cooling since 1978? Can't we always cherrypick any year we want and say 'there's been no cooling/warming over the past X years'?

Answer 1

Well really one can argue that we are only beginning to "normalize" since the last Ice Age. Besides there is MUCH more diversity of life in warmer climates than in colder climates. IF the earth warms enough and we end up with a longer "growing season" in the north this will open up much more land to grow crops that has been previously not been usable due to frozen ground.

Answer 2

I don't know Dana, has the planet warmed for ten years? Are surface temperatures an accurate metric of *global* warming?

Regarding your GISS 5 year running mean, here is William Briggs on how running means can be misused (it definitely applies): http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2007/12/30/hurr...

And who is Tamino? Why doesn't he go by his real name?

Answer 3

Your reasoning makes sense, but when you're in denial, you don't care about reason.  You just make whatever argument you have to in order to support your denial.

All the deniers know global warming hasn't stopped, but they can't admit it, because that would be the end of their denial.  Eventually we all have to face the facts tho.

Answer 4

I have no idea if the planet has stopped warming or not.  The data seem to show that there has been no increase since 2001 though.  This is despite manmade CO2 being released into the atmosphere at an increasing rate.

This levelling in temperature was not predicted by any of the climate models which throws some doubt on the claims the climate lobby.

The main concern is that the current alarmism is based around the IPCC's computer projections 100 years from now when it hasnt even been possible to predict the last 8 years correctly.  These extrapolations into the far future are totally absurd.

Even if they are true though its debatable if its worth doing much about it.  IPCC predict a 4 degree change over 100 years, thats 0.04 degrees per year.  Why do we think that we cant just adapt to this change?  

Read An Appeal to Reason by Nigel Lawson which makes a very eloquent and well argued case around the economics and ethics of any response to climate change.

Answer 5

Due to the cause of what made the Earth start heating up means their wont be a ice age. Stop and THINK, we as man dont have this type of technology to weaken the invisible force field to allow our planet to cause this kind of deletion of LIFE. Some years back, people were taken and experimented with and found to be to savage to live with, so the alternative is to creat a unnatural enigma to delete life on Earth, so it can be taken over by a new SPECIE. this is why the First Step must be used to delete G.W.-my url: http://www.inventube.com/ooojay/blog/

Answer 6

Well said, Master of Science! Ice ages happen "often" (more often than global warmings anyways) and I believe this is the warmest warming ever for the past 10 years. Skeptics must read what you hve just written because it is true. It is almost like reading fineprint when trying to choose a side. But when push comes to shove global warming is a real threat. To answer your question yes. If you don't belive in the warming of earth for the past decade then you are too ignorant or untrustworthy of scietists to really understand the complex dilema and would belive that we will never again cool or come close to another ice age. Which just shows how much logic one has. C8

Answer 7

Nope, it could go up or down.  Bob, bless his heart, taught this morning the climate has been more or less stable for the past 10,000 years.  If that is the case "stable" would be a range of +2.06'C and -1.59'C, if the Vostok data is accurate.

A variability over 100 years of +/- .5'C is nominal, if we believe Bob and the Vostok data that is.

Will the earth cool, you bet. Today, next year, 5000 years from now, no one can say. If in fact if you believe some "peer reviewed" papers, it already is trying to, by 3'C, but AGW is saving us from the new glaciation, which would certainly begin with a temperature drop that large.

AGW  Satan or Saint?

Answer 8

/\  The weather has had its share of severe cold in the last few year is what I meant.  

The snowfall this year where I live was one of the snowiest winters in 100 years.  The only time we got close to that amount of snow was in the late 1970's when they tried to foist global cooling on us.  

2006-2007 was the coldest winter I've experienced in a long time.  The entire month of February was 10 degree or lower for a high.  Western New York near the Lake Erie has 12 feet of lake effect snow.  It doesn't get much cooler than that.