If you claim that you can predict the temperature 100 years from now shouldn't you know tonight's weather?

Question

Sunday 8:22 am Toronto.

I just got back from walking the dogs and its one of those sunny perfect spring mornings where you’re thankful to be alive. On Friday the same weather channel that now brings a carbon particulate report every hour (that’s a free spot advocating global warming causes with a more scientific sounding name) said it would rain by the afternoon. The afternoon passed. No rain. Saturday came and was more glorious than Friday. They said it would rain all day long. Not a drop. I would vow to stop watching their forecasts but they are so funny. Anyway the rain is supposed to stop by 2pm today. Thank God thousands of us changed our plan go to the cottage. They keep saving us from ourselves.

Now they want to save us from the 1 to 3 degree or so temperature increases they predict 100 years from now. Never mind they are local jokes for mis-predicting a virtual Cairo garbage dump worth of short range forecasts. They are on the "I know what's best for you" team now.

Answer 1

No.  This is very basic science.

Long term average behavior is often vastly more predictable than short term changes, where the data is often noisy.

You can see it clearly in this graph.  Year to year things jump around a lot, but the 5 year average behavior is much steadier.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

Answer 2

No, because WEATHER is not the same as CLIMATE! The two are not the same thing. This is just another tactic used by the deniers to get out of admitting the the world is warming and it is our fault.

Answer 3

not really

Answer 4

you are so correct.

The climate models have proven to be completely unreliable.

With the recent drop in temperatures, it's just a matter of time before the public is tired of the alarmist lies.

hang in there.

Answer 5

That's sort of like saying, If we can land a man on the moon, why can't we cure the common cold?" Weather forecasting, especially in some areas, can be trickier than forecasting climatic trends. Meteorologists make predictions down to the degree for a particular time. Obviously, this prediction, even if accurate, will not hold for every place in their area. You learn to adjust -- colder if you live on the windward side of a mountain, warmer on the leeward side or in a city. Similarly, a small rainstorm may be powerful but not cover the entire area.

Conversely, a climatologist looks at trends and predicts that, in the absence of changes, that trend, which has held since shortly after the Industrial Revolution, will continue. Climatologists don't tell you whether it will be warm and sunny for Easter 2135.