If you were "Big Brown's" connections, would you have chosen the #20 post over the inside posts?

Question

No horse has ever won the Kentucy Derby from the #20 post.

Trainer knows the horse best, but I tend to question the decision. Big Brown did clear the field from the 12 post in the Florida Derby, but that was a much weaker field than this and if you are going to put him on the lead where he's comfortable, why not save ground and send him from the inside?

Answer 1

Post 20?  No way.  For a horse like Big Brown, I would have prefered the 1 post.

Answer 2

I was shocked.What a blunder.I won't bet him now.No way.

Answer 3

I dont think that the 20 post will be to much of a threat actually. I believe this horse has the power and stanima to make it through the race and still win.

Considering the spots he had left, I would have choosen the 19 post instead. Not much of a difference but I would still rather have 19.

With that being said, I still think he will win! Gotta love that horse!

I know I do.

:)

GO BIG B!

Answer 4

You know what they say about those Derby superstitions...

Just look at last year, unless I'm mistaken, wasn't Street Sense the Juvenile winner, so he had that superstition to contend with.  

Honestly, the Derby is always up in the air, unless a horse is great enough to overcome the huge field and inevitable traffic problems.  The inside is a dangerous place, and I think it was wise for the trainers to avoid it, but still, that post is quite a ways out and that is just another thing for Big Brown to contend with.

Answer 5

Not sure how he'd handle the inside posts. I think they want to play it really, really safe, but I'd at LEAST take the #19 spot. Who knows why they picked it? We might have to wait and see.

Personally I would have gone for the #19 spot (I'm not a big fan of the inside in the Kentucky Derby).

Answer 6

i think that they should have atleast picked 17, 18, or 19 because 20 is just a little out there for me... If they had a choice i don't understand why you'd pick that post?!? who knows what they were thinking...

Answer 7

Having worked with race horses for 5 years and sat in on the draw for post positions for many of races.  It is not up to the trainer or any of the horse's connections for that matter that decide what post position the horse gets.  It is a random draw for  post positions.  If a trainer could pick the post position every time the horse raced there would be complaints that the races were fixed.

Answer 8

Voluntarily breaking your speed horse from the outside of 20 is ludicrous... it's a sure sign of insanity.  Ok, if you're afraid of getting a bad break, then draw the 18 post that was still available... but no, let's break him from the outside of all 20.  I just don't understand it.  Maybe it wasn an attempt to show confidence in him to show that he's not going to make any difference so I'll go ahead and take the hardest one...  but I really don't understand that method... you don't want to give your horse any advantage at all?  whatever.  Breaking outside 12 mediocre horses is a lot different from breaking outside of a 20 horse field full of speed and talented horses...  You're taking a big gamble on the assumption that your horse is going to break well and run around the field and not be caught wide and shuffled back on the first turn.  I don't see it happening in this race.  I don't see him breaking so spectacularly that he clears the field in the first quarter and and cuts all the way in to the rail from the 20 post.  That was possible in the Florida Derby because there was no pace...  Here there is some pace and the inside horses are gonna get a huge lead while big brown has to make up the distance to get nearer to the rail.  He'll be 5 wide on the first turn and horses don't make up ground from there, they lose it.  He's going to be shuffled back to mid pack with an outside trip the whole way.  i was acutally considering betting him if he got a good post... I've been arguing against him for a long time but I thought that if he got a good post he has the talent to beat this field... now I don't think he even makes it into the exotics.  He's never had the kind of trip he's going to get in the derby.  I don't care how high on your horse you are and how talented you think it is... There's no rational reason ever to send your horse into a 20 horse field in his 4th start (his second stakes try) and purposely choose to end him to the outside post.  Dutrow clearly has Derby Fever... someone take him to the hospital.

Answer 9

big field means he has to clear with his speed...too much other speed in the race for him to clear and relax...your right #20 is suicide for big brown and this distance! the preakness fits him better...

Answer 10

No way.  I would never put my horse there on purpose.

Answer 11

No, I would not have picked post 20, especially since Big Brown has other problems (tender feet, lack of seasoning).  If he was a stalker or deep closer, maybe, but picking the far outside post with his running style is crazy.    

Only one horse has won the Derby from post 20, Clyde Van Dusen (a son of Man o' War).  He won from post 20 in a walk-up start  in 1929, before the starting gate was invented.    

In the Derby the connections do get to pick the post (somewhat).  The Derby uses a two-step process:  the connections do a blind draw for the order in which they can choose their preference of available posts.

Answer 12

From what I've seen of Big Brown they could start him from behing the barn and he'd still win.

Answer 13

I believe that starting from 20 was a super smart call. Big Brown has the speed and stamina to outrun all the others even with the 20 post . Alteast on the out side you can get a good clean runs without the worries about gettin boxed in etc. The inside posts are good to have because of less running but they have a higher risk off getting into troublesome situations.