Im really doubting my poker skills right now.. Help!?

Question

Okay, basically i withdrew a whole bunch of money after beating 1/2 on ftp 6max for a while.

Anyways i left myself around 1.5k and started grinding .25/.50 heads up because i wanted to work on it. I know the rake is killer, but it seemed like a good place to start. After playing for around 100 hours, i am completely even. I am not sure how many hands i played as I dont have poker tracker or anything. I would 2 table half the time, and 1 table the other half.

Im running okay. There are some bad beats, but not an insane number where i would go on life tilt. However, there were alot of coolers (AQJ4J board i have QJ, villian has AA)

I would win alot (like 4 buyins in 1-2 hrs) and would feel really good. Then the next day, i would precede to lose 10 buyins in 1 hour. Anyways, this has been like this for a long cycle. Ive really been working hard, and reviewing my game through the hand histories and pokerstoving.

Anways, is breaking even after 100 hrs normal?

Answer 1

VARIANCE!

A few things: the rake at $0.25/$0.50 HU is, like you said, killer. Don't play it. Stick to full ring or 6-max and (at least at these levels) you'll be better off.

Next, how many tables are you playing? If I were you, I think I'd start 2 or 4 tabling $0.10/$0.25 or $0.25/0.50 6-max. More tables will allow you to get in more hands, get more experience, and, perhaps most importantly, get used to the feel of multitabling.

Probably most importantly, I'd download a demo of PokerTracker. They'll let you input the first 1,000 hands for free (if I remember correctly), but from there you can see exactly how much you're making, how much rake you're paying, and where your leaks are.

Finally, I recommend studying up a little more. Most poker books are trash, but reading the forums at twoplustwo.com, pocketfives.com, and (admitted plug!) zonacrew.net (!!!) and asking for advice on hands can really help the way you play the game.

Best of luck,

-dpottz on FTP, the wa®den on Stars

Answer 2

I'm not a heads-up ring game player, but I know to win is a different strategy than playing 6-max.  You can't stick with premium hands, and you've got to recognize patterns in your opponents' play.  

It also sounds like you need to manage your bankroll with a little more discipline.  Playing 100 hours isn't necessarily a large sample size to determine your skill level.  Though, if you really ARE even, then there are probably a few steps (from bankroll management perspective) that you should've taken and probably would've  been profitable by now.  First, make sure you stop your losses!  It is my personal rule that if I lose two buy-ins in one session, I quit for the day.  This is particularly helpful on those bad runs that seem to last for weeks, when NOTHING seems to go right.  Second, I set a cap on winnings.  If you hit a "limit" or "goal," then quit for the day.  Ever have a great run at the tables, where you make amazing calls, unthinkable laydowns, and seemingly all the right plays, only to have your winnings eliminated in a few bad beats?  This rule is aimed to prevent any meltdowns that you might experience after having a good run.  

It sounds like you have a good foundation here, you just need to know when to stop the chip-bleeding.  Play the lower limits for a while, and if after you've made some bankroll adjustments you STILL aren't making money, then maybe heads-up cash isn't for you (I know it ain't for ME :)).  Hope this helps.

Answer 3

Breaking even, or even going on a losing streak, is just variance. It happens to the best players, so don't freak out about your game just yet. Even the top pros have this happen, after all.

Now is a good time, however, to examine your game and make sure that you're playing your best. Study up on your poker strategy...re-visit some of the advanced strategy guides and tips  that you've picked up as you've learned the game, et cetera. This is as good a time as any to refresh yourself in this area.

So, yeah. Variance is normal. You might also start keeping records of your play so that you can easily track variance. You don't have to invest in expensive software to do this. A spreadsheet will do the trick if you set it up right.

Answer 4

$1,500?  I am not sure .25/.50 is a good way to gauge your poker skills.  You can practice at that level and I always recommend that going down a level is never a bad idea, but if you say the rake is killer, then breaking even would be a good thing.  For example, I know people who make money at 2/4 Limit Hold'em in the casino.  They actually win $80 to $100 ever time they play.  Just to break even in that game you need to win 1.5x the Big Bet.  If you tip then you have to win near 2x the Big Bet.  So to win $4 an hour you have to win 3x the Big Bet and in my opinion 3x the Big Bet is good poker.  So my feeling is that if you can break even at the micro limit where you say the rake is killer then you are probably playing well.  Is this really worth your time?  It's only worth your time if you have learned something.

If you have $1,500 then you should be playing no less than 1/2 and have no more than $75 at the table.  $50 is enough, but cutting it close.

You need to see how much the rake is and figure that as compared to the blind structure.  Obviously you are feeding the rake, but how much is key.

Answer 5

Well usually, 6max runs about 70 hands/hour, so if you're 2 tabling for 35, that's 4,900 hands plus another 2450 from single tabling, for about 7,350 hands.  Over a sample size like that, variance is massive.  You need at least 40,000 hands to get a good view beyond variance.

If you were beating 1/2 badly, then you really should've left yourself a roll to play with.  Fwiw, the standard bankroll for any limit is at least 20 buy-ins, so for 1/2 that's a $4,000 roll.

You're at the right level for your bankroll.  If you're losing 10 buyins in one hour, you're playing some seriously aggressive and therefore high variance poker.  You're probably shoving marginal situations, which can get you paid big, but you're going to have massive downswings too.

Oh man, you don't have tracker?  Okay, step #1 get it ASAP!  It's not a program that you just might want to use, it's an indespensible tool for anyone playing online poker.  For less than one buy-in you're going to have a ridiculous amount of information previously unavailable to you to make many more good decisions at the table.

For variance, I've seen runs over 30,000 hands where a player had made enough good decisions where his EV was at +1850 big bets, but his actual winnings were at -111 big bets, so poker can be evil.  All you can do is keep making correct decisions and putting in hands.

Answer 6

Losing 10 buyin's in 1 hour is a big leak. Fix that before anything else.

Answer 7

One, don't have a pre-set point where if you lose X you quit and if you win Y you quit.  That just minimizes your profits.  Read some of Mike Caro's stuff on poker1.com and in Super System 2.

Breaking even after 100 hours could be normal, but so could winning and losing.  It depends on your skill and how you're running.  If you're as inconsistent as you say you are, I'd guess it was more of an issue where some days you're more focused than others.  You need to even this out, or just not play if you're not focused.

As you get better, you will get more consistent.

Try to find a poker forum where you can ask questions and discuss strategy.  Try the ones at homepokertourney.com.  I'm hockeygoon there.  There are a lot of people who will help you and you won't have to put 3-4 questions on YA where you can't really have a discussion.

Answer 8

pretty much everything that needs to be said here has been...100 hours is not a big enough sample size to determine much of anything, especially heads-up where you will get huge, and i mean huge, swings...the game is so different, you are playing basically every pot and therefore your money is at risk much more often than in a ring game where you are involved in a much smaller percentage of the hands...one other thing to consider is your opponents, i would imagine you're not playing any kenny trans at the $.25-.50 level, but you may be running into tougher competition than in ring games with those stakes because only people who have a certain amount of confidence in their skill are willing to play heads-up

one other thing that chad pointed out is correct, having a set point at where you quit is really just bad...if you are able to look at your play objectively and say you are playing well, then you should keep playing regardless of your results, unless you are tilting from a bad beat or something