In addition to the post position, what about 'Big Brown's" lack of racing.?

Question

He has only three races. And while he has been impressive, especially in the Florida Derby, he CAN'T run 46 and change for the half and win on Saturday.

I get the same feeling of Big Brown this year as I did with Curlin last year. Talented horse, but won't win Derby.

Your thoughts, please.

Thanks.

Answer 1

I'm with you.  Unbeaten in 3 races is not that impressive to me.  It's good but we'll have to see how he does.  He's great looking horse, though.

Answer 2

With his experience, I don't see the outside post as a bad thing.  Sure he will have to run further, but he won't get caught up in the traffic in the middle of the track.  Plus if he can break pretty good like he has been he can get towards the front and help set his pace.  However there is no telling this year, noone jumps out at me as a strong competitor.  I guess we will see in a few days.

Answer 3

Barbaro only had a few races too, and a month off prior to the Derby, and he still won the race by the biggest margin in over 60 years. That should tell you something about Big Brown, I think. As for Curlin, that horse has gone on to become a huge superstar- he just won the Dubai Cup, which is a multi million dollar race, and they are letting him rest before campaigning him again this summer or in the fall at the Classic. So he was a late bloomer- there's nothing wrong with that. I think Big Brown is going to do just fine, even with an outside post. He has more ground to make up for, yes, so the race will be more of a test for him, but isn't that what the Derby and races like it are really all about?

The field for the Derby this year is wide open- this is anybody's race for the taking. I am picking Visionaire for sentimental reasons, but there are others I like as well, such as the filly Eight Belles. Time will tell....

Answer 4

I think he will win the Derby.

Considering this point last year of Curlin, right now Big Brown is better then he was at this point last year. I mean, YES Curlin is an outstanding horse, but he has learned all the racing techneaks through many other races, this one being one of the biggest.

But Big Brown is just insane. He gets on that track and he just goes.

Can't wait to see the Derby.

If.. or excuse me.. WHEN he wins the Derby, it will be amazing.

Winning from post 20, having only 3 races under his belt... wow is all I can say. =)

Answer 5

I was wary of him in the Florida Derby because I hadn't seen him race before and he was coming into a stakes off a maiden win on the grass and an allowance allowance win in the slop.  Big Brown won that race because there was no other pace in the race.  Without Big Brown, they would have been going in 24 and 48.  It was easy for him to clear the field and get to the rail by running his 22 and 46.

After that race, I had been strongly arguing against him for his lack of experience but lately, looking at how little other pace was going to make it into the race, I decided that I might give him a shot in the exotics if he got a good post.  But now there's no way he finishes anywhere in the money.

Experience matters when a horse finds himself in a new position.  Big Brown has never faced this big of a field (none of them have) and Big Brown has never had a rough trip.  He's only had 3 starts and they were all against mediocre horses.  He's never been challenged.  In all of his 3 starts he's gotten a pretty perfect trip at the rail alone on the front end.  Now he's breaking from the outside of 20.  Clearing a 12 horse field without pace is a lot easier than clearing a 20 horse field.  He's going to have Gayego on his inside trying to run out to the lead too so he's not going to have an easy time cutting over to the rail.  The horses on the inside are going to get a big head start.  Bob Black Jack is going to be breaking from the 13 hole so once Big Brown makes it half way to the rail he's going to run into another speed horse who will be blocking his easy path to the rail.  In order for him to break and run out to the lead on the rail, he's going to have to run a lot faster than Gayego and Bob Black Jack.  I know there's a long run down the straight before they get to the turn, but I don't see how Big Brown can clear the whole field, cut in all the way to the rail and be on the lead in a quarter mile.  If he does, he'll be running in 21 or 22 and if he tries to run that fast in his first try over 10 furlongs, he won't be able to compete with the closers in the stretch.  There's only 2 scenarios that can happen for this horse in the derby: (1) he breaks out flying and clears the field and sets the pace, but tires in the stretch or (2) he breaks ok, can't get past Gayego and Bob Black Jack, he gets near to the pace, but ends up 5 wide on the first turn and either he maintains his position there and keeps a 5 wide stalking trip or he loses ground around the turn if they're trying to conserve his energy, then he's going to end up outside in midpack.  Big Brown has never had the kind of trip that he's about to get.  If he was experienced and had rough trips in the past, then he might be able to do it, but he hasn't.  

I think the connections made an awful decision when they chose 20... it was stupid... it's delusional.  They think their horse is the best thing ever to walk on 4 legs and they think it can do anything and nothing will ever bother it.  They're not looking at the reality that the horse has never been in this position before and hasn't ever faced true competition.  How many other horses from the Florida Derby field made it to the derby? One... and no one thinks of Smooth Air as a true competitor.  He was given 20-1 morning line.  The 3rd place horse, Tomcito, came back to finish a weak 6 in the Lexington.  The 4th place horse, Hey Byrn, had difficulty beating maidens/allowance horses in its next start.  Big Brown has never faced a closer and this Derby field is full of them.  The connections are insane and I find that all the people who are still bringing all this hype around Big Brown are delusional too.

Answer 6

There's alot wrong with this years Derby, "You can make a (Win) case for every horse in the race; also you can make a case that each horse will not Win".

That's Why I'm Going with the (Jockey + Trainer) Combos.

Garett Gomez chose to ride "COURT VISION" and Prado chose to ride "ADRIANO" (WHY?). I'm using both on top of Tri and Bottom of Tri.  (4-15/ 4-15/ all)   and  (all / 4-15 / 4-15) and hope for the best!

Answer 7

Agreed, talented horse but won't win the Derby.  He's too lightly raced, bad feet, terrible post position.  Both Z Fortune and Denis of Cork were also unbeaten after 3 races, so I take his undefeated 3 race record with a grain of salt.  

Finally, he's going to have a huge target on his back, the favorite always does, but amplify that with the way his trainer has been trash talking.  They're not going to "play nice" with a horse whose connections keep bragging that he's the best horse in the race.