In the TDF, in the Ind. Time Trial, what's the most time to be behind by & have a chance of winning the YJ?

Question

Realistically - how much time (minutes, seconds) behind that is, whilst having a realistic chance of claiming/winning the Yellow Jersey and overall in the General Classification of the TDF.

Was 1 minute, 34 seconds too much for a cyclist like Cadel Evans to gain over another cyclist, even if the competitor and higher placed rider such as Carlos Sastre is not regarded as a good time trialler?

It looked hard enough to gain back 20 to 30 seconds, let alone 1 minute and 34 seconds!

By the way, does anyone know the time margin Cadel Evans had behind Albetro Contodor prior to the last time trial in last year's Tour de France?

- I wanted to compare the time differences.

Answer 1

I believe the widest gap to overcome and win the yellow jersey in the final ITT was about 40 sec.

This year the 1 min. 34 sec. gap seemed to be not enough, because Sastre is not a good time trialist, and Evans is one of the best at that discipline. However, Evans day was not one on his best and Sastre rode his best time trial ever.

Personnal opinion;  Evans had no team supporting him trought the tour. Popyvich alone was not enough.

What Evans accomplished was on his own, and I think that took too much out of him during the first 19 stages.

I believe Evans trailed Contador by about 42 sec. He only picked up about 12 sec in ITT.  Contador, although not a time trial specialist, is much better than Sastre.

Answer 2

In 2007 (stage 19) Alberto was 1minute 50 seconds ahead of Cadel Evans. That was closed down to 23 sec. Levi Leipheimer beat Evans by 51 Seconds.

http://www.letour.fr/2007/TDF/LIVE/us/19... (click stage standings tab)

A lot is going to depend on the individuals involved. Schumacher beat Evans by 2 Minutes and five seconds this year. I doubt this would have been the case if the lead was involved.

Realistically it has been proven two years in a row that relying on superior time trial ability is a poor tactic. If the gap had only been 18 seconds it is likely that Sastre could have defended it.

A specialist time trial rider is not going to improve their time significantly. While another rider who stands a chance of taking home cycling’s ultimate prize is going to put in the ride of their lives. Both Kohl and Sastre put in time trials that were heaps better than previous results.

There is a huge advantage in starting the time trial after your main competition (Reverse order start). A great team can do to heap to help a rider post the best time of their life. The team can take split times from dozens of places around the course. They will be able to feed back more than enough information via the radio to keep them at the right pace. If you have a team mate leaving just before you, prepared ride slow and work as a lure (if needed). There are probably other things that I haven't noticed that could help also.

There is no safe margin. If you take the difference between the leaders best time and the chasers then allow for a margin for improvement. The time difference is going to be quite small. Any more than a few seconds (IMO) then there is still a chance of a flat tyre or a fall areal long shot but still a chance.

Great work by C.S.C. They had Cadel chasing Frank, Andy and Carlos around in the Alps. I'm sure that if Carlos wasn’t the one to get away and one of the other two did they would have finished in yellow. I'm also sure that all three were training hard for time trials. Yes, I reckon Frank could have posted a much better time trial but took his time in case Carlos needed him. Great tactics and it might be useful next year.

You gotta love the tour.