India v Sri Lanka in World Twenty20 survival battle
Bounced into submission against Australia and the West Indies, India have a last-gasp chance to remain in the World Twenty20 with a win in their final Super Eight match against Sri Lanka today.
It’s not quite that simple, however. While a loss will mean game over for India in the Caribbean, a win offers just the chance of moving through to the semi-finals.
The first variable is the result in the final match of their Super Eight group between Australia and the West Indies: if the hosts win, India are out of the competition, regardless of their result against Sri Lanka. However, if Australia lives up to expectations and defeats Chris Gayle’s team then the margin of any India victory over Sri Lanka becomes crucial.
The number crunchers have been hunched over their calculators, and the equation they’ve come up with is that India need to beat Sri Lanka by 20 runs or a minimum of 2.1 overs to reach the semi-finals.
Should both Sri Lanka and Australia emerge victorious from today’s matches, then it would be Sri Lanka that fill the second semi-final spot from Group D, which would entitle them to a final-four match against the in-form England.
Runners-up last year, Sri Lanka have had a see-sawing Super Eight so far in 2010, beginning with a 57-run win against the West Indies and following that with an 81-run smashing at the hands of Australia.
It was a loss that exposed a lack of batting depth in the Sri Lanka XI, as Mahela Jayawardene recorded his first failure of the World Twenty20 after scores of 81, 100 and 98 in his opening three matches.
With Jayawardene firing, Sri Lanka were able to sidestep the form troubles of Tillakaratne Dilshan and skipper Kumar Sangakkara, who admittedly has one good innings to balance his three single-figure dismissals, but Australia laid their batting line-up bare. If India can likewise dismiss the opener early, their chances of restricting the Sri Lankans to a manageable total improve considerably.
In Suresh Raina, Yuvraj Singh and Rohit Sharma, Yusuf Pathan and MS Dhoni India should have the batting talent to either set or chase a formidable total, if they can build the partnerships to get them there.
Dhoni’s team will be searching for any advantage they can as they drag bodies weary from six weeks of the IPL onto the field again but one factor will leave both teams breathing a collective sigh of relief, and that is that they meet on a slow St Lucia pitch that will suit both teams’ style of play.
It’s a pitch that should limit the impact of Sri Lanka slinger Lasith Malinga and his partners in pace, but whatever the pitch conditions, Malinga’s World Twenty20 hasn’t been a great one. Sure, he took three wickets against the West Indies on the fast Kensington Oval track, but in 12.5 overs so far, they are the only scalps he’s claimed while also proving expensive, conceding 107 runs so far.
India will also be hoping the slower pitch will help off-spinner Harbhajan Singh to improve on his economical but wicket-less tournament so far, conceding an average of just 5.50 runs per over.
Prediction: Conditions in St Lucia should enable both teams to play a brand of cricket that suits their natural style, but India should have the batting depth to win this. The question though is whether the margin will be enough to ensure their World Twenty20 survival beyond the Super Eight stage.
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