Is Adrian Peterson really worth the second pick in fantasy draft?

Question

Last year he had a great rookie season. But this is only his 2nd year in the league and it just seems like hes getting way to much respect and fantasy attention for one year of duty. To me he seems like a guy that the verdict is still out on making it hard to make him the snd overall pick my draft. To me it seems liek the only gaurentee with Peterson is that he will be hurt at some point in the year.

Please give me your thought, im playing for money

Answer 1

He more than likely is overvalued, although he's still a top-five fantasy back.  Personally, I would consider both Brian Westbrook and Stephen Jackson before I took him, but I would have to place him at number 4.

He does have an injury history that dates back years - but his injuries tend to be minor (LCL sprain last year, limited by high ankle sprain once in sophmore year at Oklahoma) or to areas which have not diminished his natural running abilities (the collarbone injury in college, etc.).  I'd be a lot more concerned about his wear and tear if he were having significant knee problems, but that doesn't appear to be the issue.

In terms of pure, instinctive running ability, there's no one in the NFL who matches up him at this time; I feel comfortable saying that despite his just one year of experience in the NFL, because he has been the best back in the country at other levels.  When he was at Palestine for High School he was far and away the best player in the country, and in his freshman year at Oklahoma he set huge records and was First Team All American as a freshman.  He has a rarely seen combination of size, strength, speed, agility, and just plain ferocity - he runs low to the ground like Barry Sanders - in short, he is a prototypical runner.

His game does have flaws - he can't catch very well, and he's not as good of a blocker in the backfield.  He's also very much a downhill runner, and despite having great cut-back ability, he can sometimes be too "North-South" focused and fail to make cuts that would yield him larger gains. Chester Taylor will still get time because he can catch far more effectovely than AP.

All that being said, the kid is a rising star, and the past injuries are worrisome but not enough to take him out of the top-5.  If I were in a keeper league I would even consider him a 1 - because the other guys around him (with the exception of Jackson) are a little older and RB productivity will decline with age.  In this years draft though, I say LT, Westbrook, Jackson, AP.  I'm drinking Ap's kool-aid, just not the whole glass.

Answer 2

WOW, I thought I was the only one who was nervous about AP's next season. I'm actually hoping I dont get the 2nd pick b/c I would deffitly be nevous about taking him in the 2nd pick b/c i also think he is being overhyped in fantasy value. I woul monitor him in pre season and if you do get an early pick maybe take Jackson or Westbrook over him. I think I might.

Answer 3

I agree, for some one to pick him in the second spot him/her would have to use a 4 or 5 round pick on Chester Taylor wasting a valuable pick. I would take Westbrook or even S.Jackson before picking him.

Answer 4

Stats-wise, yes. But because he's injury prone, no. Take someone else like Brian Westbrook or Steven Jackson.

Answer 5

I completely agree.

He has a terrible injury history dating to high school.

He's a timeshare back, and Minnesota will give carries to Taylor in any effort to keep Peterson healthy.

He fizzled at the end of last season.

He still has a crummy QB, though they did give him one legitimate target in Berrian.

He's this year's "s**y" pick, much like Frank Gore was last year.

Answer 6

i'd go with westbrook as 2nd pick, but AP is definitely worth a top 5

Answer 7

A agree with you, and I am glad I don't have the 2nd pick this year. To be honest, I wouldn't know who to take if I didnt take him 2nd. Look at the other rbs.

Brian Westbrook- On a good team, not the goal line back and has never played a full season w/o getting hurt.

Joe Addai- Also has the injury bug, Mannings health could hurt his value.

Stephen Jackson- Still has a bad O-line, coming off of an injury.

Now if your scoring gives the same amount of points to a QB for a TD as a RB or WR, you might want to jump on Tom Brady, but that depends on your scoring, but as you can see, out of what is left, I would still take him with the 2nd pick.