Is BIG BROWN going to win the derby ?

Question

I'll take the 3 to 1.

Answer 1

A statistical regression formula I used to handicap the race places fair odds under the expected fast pace scenario at

1/1 for Col John

9/2 for Big Brown

and 7/1 for Pyro

That scenario is only valid if somebody challenges Big Brown for the lead....if he gets away from the herd early, he'll win going away.  But if you're looking for a real longshot....one simulation I ran said Recapturetheglory is the likely winner...if Big Brown is scratched, or loses his jockey, or has some other unforseen mishap and doesn't go for the early lead.  As you can see, its a REALLY hard game. They don't call it gambling for nothing...and remember what they alway's say at the track..."Free advice is worth exactly what you paid for it!"  Good luck Saturday.

Answer 2

Yeah I think he has a chance, thats who Im going for. Big Brown is so far the fastest hores running and breaking from the 20 post is going to be a challenage for him but I think he can do it!!

1) Big Brown

2) Eight Belles

3) Cool Coal Man

Answer 3

No he wont win but i have him in my tri for 3rd.

Answer 4

No

Answer 5

YES.....BY 10

Answer 6

If ever there was a horse I wish I could bet to lose, this one would be it.  Three prior starts?  A very overrated Fla. Derby coming in really slow against a bunch of pigs?

Not a chance in h**l.

Answer 7

I wouldn't take him until he got up to at least 9-1. At this point I doubt he makes the lead at any point in the race. You can throw him in the exotics, but that's about it.

Answer 8

HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!... GUARANTEED

Answer 9

From post 20? No way !!

Answer 10

may be he will be in third or fourth places.

Answer 11

I second the No.