Is Big Brown running against tough historical odds?

Question

In the 133 year history of the Preakness, only 31 horses have ever won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. I like Big Brown but it does appear he is running against tough historical odds. Here is a list of the 31:

2004 Smarty Jones

2003 Funny Cide

2002 War Emblem

1999 Charismatic

1998 Real Quiet

1997 Silver Charm

1989 Sunday Silence

1987 Alysheba

1981 Pleasant Colony

1979 Spectacular Bid

1978 Affirmed - (Triple Crown)

1977 Seattle Slew - (Triple Crown)

1973 Secretariat - (Triple Crown)

1971 Canonero II

1969 Majestic Prince

1968 Forward Pass

1966 Kauai King

1964 Northern Dancer

1961 Carry Back

1958 Tim Tam

1948 Citation - (Triple Crown)

1946 Assault - (Triple Crown)

1944 Pensive

1943 Count Fleet - (Triple Crown)

1941 Whirlaway - (Triple Crown)

1937 War Admiral - (Triple Crown)

1936 Bold Venture

1935 Omaha - (Triple Crown)

1932 Burgoo King

1930 Gallant Fox - (Triple Crown)

1919 Sir Barton - (Triple Crown)

Answer 1

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Considering that hardly anyone was aiming for it until about 1915 (when Regret brought much of the Derby's original prestige), we take 31/93, which is a third. Compared to the historical precedents that Big Brown looked at in the Derby, this isn't even a minor obstacle.

If we were talking about the triple crown, there are obviously high historical odds, but the Derby and the Preakness are a pretty common double!

Answer 2

Big Brown is a pretty amazing horse i have to admit, he might as well go for the horse of America, but there are other horses out their that can beat him, for example last year's kentucky derby winner. The derby is pretty tough to win, and with horse season starting, there will be a lot more competitions out their. All the Big Brown needs is a good jocky, because the current one practically doesn't even know how to ride a horse. He lets him go for the whole race.

Big brown with a good jocky=winners of derby, and all other competitions in the world.

A lot of other horses in history have been much better than Big Brown, but if Big Brown has the heart for it, he can win the derby, if he is put into too much pressure, like ur saying, then he might as well just loose. He will get too nervous.

Answer 3

Well, just looking at the recent years, when the Derby winner didn't win the Preakness it was for a reason.  You have to throw out 2006 because Barbaro didn't "lose" the Preakness... he just didn't get to run it.  In 2005 and 2001, the Derby winner didn't win the Preakness because the wrong horse won the Derby.  Point Given should have had the Derby and just didn't show up that day... he was the best horse of the year.  Afleet Alex barely missed in the Derby... and I think we all knew that when Giacomo crossed the line for the Derby, we weren't going to have a Triple Crown winner... Afleet Alex should have won the Derby that year.  Other than that, the Derby winner has won the Preakness a lot recently... more than a majority of the years since 1997.  So I wouldn't call it a curse.  

I don't think this is a year like 2001 and 2005 where another horse should have won the Derby... that's actually what I expected to see happen... I expected Big Brown to lose the Derby due to the 20 post in combination with his experience... I thought of him as the best horse of the year, but thought he had too much to overcome for the Derby.

Remember that there's also a few years where the Derby winner simply could not win the Preakness... they were run on the same day!

Answer 4

its a true test of talent/derby is 1mile and a 1/4,preakness a mile and 3/16, and belmont mile and 1/2. all run back to back with in a month and 3 weeks...stamina,talent,breeding,etc great racing!