Is Venezuela's gas supply expected to outlast Canada's oil supply?

Question

Is Venezuela's gas supply expected to outlast Canada's oil supply?

Answer 1

It depends on what you mean by "outlast".  Canada's conventional oil production has already peaked while Venezuela's is still going OK.

Both Canada and Venezuela have large non-conventional tar-sands-type reserves.  Canada's are more accessible and probably larger, and are under active development now.  Venezuela's oil sands are buried deeper so they can't be extracted by surface mining like in Alberta.

So to answer your question:  tar-sand oil will probably keep Canada going longer than it will Venezula.

Answer 2

No.

The difference in market systems helps explain it.

Venezuela subsidizes oil sales so gas there can cost as little as 25 cents per gallon. Last year they nationalized foreign oil companies. If other countries serve as historical example, the Venezuelan government will sell gas at levels that are unallocatively efficient. Smuggling, government price controls, will like cause shortages in the long run.

Even if Venezuela had more oil, it will use it too quickly, and will not respond to changes in prices that signal consumers to use less and producers to refine/drill more.

Canada may seem to have tapped all their major oil fields, but because they have a more market oriented system economists can predict that they will respond to price changes, implement better technology because of price changes, and use less gas.

Its like last Christmas when Target sold Wiis for $250, while they could be bought on eBay for $400. The price may be lower at Target,but they run out. Where prices rise, you will not find shortages, or empty shelves. Or empty gas tanks.