Is a stock's opening price usually around its previous day closing price or after market price?

Question

Does a stock usually open around the previous day's closing price or the previous day's after market closing price? For example, a stock closes today at $10 and after hours it goes down to $9.20. Around which point is it most likely to open tomorrow? around 10 or 9.20?

Answer 1

Based on my own observations, not on any scientific or even pseudoscientific analysis, I would say that most of the time it is more likely to open closer to $10. However, if the after hours move was based upon a news release of some sort, it is more likely to open closer to $9.20.

Answer 2

I presume the US market is similar in operation to the UK market. That is order driven. I wrote a short answer to a question about the end of day share auctions. Maybe you can use this as an insight to the US market.

http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php?pa...

It's about the 3rd question/answer down .

I think all order driven systems must have something like an auction, otherwise in an illiquid stock you could put in a small trade and manipulate the 'closing' price.