Is earthquake predictable even if it is 2 weeks ahead? can siesmographers know it?

Question

its because somebody's giving an info that an 8.1 earthquake gonna hit Phillipines on 18.....the magnitude is not joke anymore, its kinda serious.....i hope to have a direct response to this....thanks fellas

Answer 1

Earthquakes relieve enormous stresses that build up in the earth's crust due to relatively steady movements of tectonic plates.  Faults can be examined to determine the approximate frequency of earthquakes along a fault and the amount of slip that is likely to occur and they may be hundreds or thousands of years apart.  Local seismic instruments can be installed to detect minor shock waves and earth movements that may precede an earthquake.  Observations of animal behavioral changes have been reported prior to a major earthquake.  Earthquakes seem to occur like a mechanical clock with a poorly set alarm.  It is difficult to evacuate a city because an earthquake may occur within the next 20 years or even the next 20 weeks, especially when predictions of time and size are still relatively crude.

Answer 2

Earthquakes are indeed predictable.  The problem is that the prediction lacks the necessary precession.  For example:  I could predict that there will be an earthquake along the San Andreas fault in California within the next 50 years.  Now my answer is accurate; however, it is not precise.

So the person is giving you inaccurate information.

No one can be correct about predicting an earthquake two weeks in advance-especially with also predicting the magnitude.

Answer 3

earthquakes are not predictable.

Answer 4

Earthquakes can not be predicted or prevented. I have successfully designed early warning system for earthquakes and tsunami.That has helped me to issue the warning 2 hours before Tsunami struck our coast.But my warning was ignored,Even after 3 years the meteorological department has not shown real interest to find the fact how it was possible to alert when others failed.Last week Chinese scientists invited me to know how it was possible for me to alert.They all appreciated me. However read this hints.

Methods for prediction of earthquakes & Tsunami

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1. Seismic gape: - The earthquake at a particular place may occur for every fixed gape of time. By knowing the past records of the quakes affected at that place may help to decide when the earthquake is next due.

2. Planet position.: - When the stress is accumulated at the tectonic plate boundary and the same time if the position of more than 2 planets comes in a straight line this may help to accelerate the earthquakes. There fore the full moon days and new moon days are more vulnerable days for earthquakes. Some time this method fails why? Think of a sick patient. New moon and full moon days are dangerous for only sick patents. These days will not affect the healthy people. The same way if there is no accumulated stress at the tectonic plate boundaries no need to worry about the planet positions.

3. Sun rays falling method: - If you observe the position of the sun rays falling on our wall at a particular time on all days it should form an angular infinity symbol. If there is any deviation in its path it means that there is some difference in height of the earth. That means some strain noticed at that place. Somebody claims that they can predict the place of epicenter by observing this. The laser beam measuring method of earth height from satellite also will help.

4. MDCB:- Chinese scientist claims that they can predict up to 60 % accuracy by sensing electro magnetic rays.

5. Cloud forming: - Few hours to a few days before the occurrence of earthquakes a cloud reader claims that he has noticed a peculiar mosaic type of formation .We may also notice some lightening in the sky.

6. By sound :- A professor from Ajmeer University claims that he was able to hear a low frequency noise under 125 meter depth in a bore well. The same thing was reported by one Mr. Nair that he heard some roaring noise under the earth one week before the occurrence of earthquake in Gujarat.

7. By frequency of waves :-  Mr Richter Allen of Berkley University claims that he can decide the magnitude of earthquake just  4 seconds after observing the frequency of the primary wave. Present method needs the full seismographic picture to find the real magnitude that too from as many places as possible to have fairly accurate results. His claim has got some truth because when there is a slip of bigger tectonic plate the frequency of quake will be less. If a small tectonic plate slips the frequency of the waves will be more.

8. There are several changes in nature and in the behaviors of animals and birds can be observed before an earthquake and Tsunami. I wrote several articles on these subjects. The water level in well may change. Stay away from beaches if you sense earthquake waves. The Tsunami may attack long after the shaking is stopped.

9. Have one simple earthquake alarm installed in your house.



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