Is technological progress exponential?

Question

then, what will life be like in the 22nd century?

Answer 1

I'm no scientist or mathematician, but i would say it is......... which brings up an interesting point.  22nd century, we'll kill our self out from our own technology................. sadly true.

Answer 2

You need to watch more episodes of the original Star Trek. Live long and prosper.

Answer 3

There has been much speculation among futurists that it is indeed exponential.  At some point in the coming decades, it is predicted, the rate of technological progress will advance so quickly that we will pass through an evolutionary barrier, and that what's on the other side is unknowable to humans of the present.  This phenomenon is called a technological Singularity.  I'm something of an agnostic as to whether such an event could actually happen, though as an optimist, futurist, and transhumanist I'd sure like to be around if and when it does.

Many years ago I wrote a web page (like blogs, before blogs existed) about the Singularity, including reasons why it might not happen.  You might also want to check out the Wikipedia articles on the Singularity, as well as on posthuman, our state after such an event.  Links below.

Answer 4

I doubt it. Technology is influenced by so many non-technological factors that it's difficult to say exactly how it will develop.

If this question had been asked in 1908, would all current technology have been foreseeable then?

Answer 5

i think it is, in a way. something scientifically huge and important gets discovered every once in a while scientifically, a large leap of knowledge. then from that things grow exponentially, but i don't think the leaps of knowledge necessarily come exponentially faster. so going by that nothing would really be that different, but everything we have would be exponentially improved, like for example computers exponentially faster, but not like flying cars, or cold fusion or something. those are big leaps of discoveries in science in order to be feasible. but when big leaps like that happen nobody can be sure. but to be honest i'm not sure there will be another one since by the 22nd century what we've invented so far with our policy of profit decides all and forget common sense learning knowledge testing and organizing, will have brought us back to the iron age. we use free market, meaning let the market decide what happens, let demand decide, let commercials, media, manipulation decide. but if you fail to plan then you plan to fail. we failed to plan, now we're in the sh..