Is the Antarctic only staying relatively cool because of the ozone hole?

Question

oh dear, this is something i was worried about;

Ozone-hole recovery may spur Antarctic warming

AGU

April 24, 2008

http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0424-agu.html

Answer 1

Yes exactly!  The ozone hole is letting all the heat escape.

Answer 2

No, it's not relatively cool.  Ice mass is being lost, and the loss is accelerating:

The Antarctic has recently been measured to be losing total ice mass as well.  

"Over the 10 year time period of the survey, the ice sheet as a whole was certainly losing mass, and the mass loss increased by 75% during this time. Most of the mass loss is from the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and the northern tip of the Peninsula where it is driven by ongoing, pronounced glacier acceleration. In East Antarctica, the mass balance is near zero, but the thinning of its potentially vulnerable marine sectors suggests this may change in the near future."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/200...

The warming in some parts of Antarctica is much faster than elsewhere in the world, and it even extends deep into the nearby oceans:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20...

"A new report from WWF, published at the UN conference on climate change in Bali, has found that global warming is occurring five times faster in the Antarctic peninsula than the rest of the world, and threatening the survival of the emperor, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins that breed on the continent.

The Antarctic peninsula is warming five times faster that the average rate of global warming and the waters of Southern Ocean have become warmer as far down as 3,000m, the report found.

Sea ice is now covering 40% less area that it did 26 years ago off the west Antarctic peninsula. "

We can even see that the melt rate is unprecedented for the last several thousand years:

New Research Confirms Antarctic Thaw Fears - Spiegel Online

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk...

"...the Pine Island Glacier has shrunk by an average of 3.8 centimeters annually over the past 4,700 years. But the Smith and Pope glaciers have only lost 2.3 centimeters of their thickness annually during the past 14,500 years. Satellite measurements taken between 1992 and 1996, though, show a loss of 1.6 meters in thickness per year on the Pine Island Glacier -- a figure that represents 42 times the average melt of the past 4,700 years."

42X faster melt than historic trends!  That's huge!!

Answer 3

No, it's cool because sunspot activity is low.  Sunspot activity occurs on an 11-year cycle that peaked a couple of years ago; high sunspot activity produces clearer skies and warmer temperatures while low sunspot activity is associated with increased cloud cover and cooler weather.

Answer 4

LRG, the ice shelves that are melting play a major role in the global conveyor.  Water is drawn under them and cooled about 1/2 degree.  The temperature difference causes them to flow out as cold currents.  They aren't isolated at all.  One of these I know ends up in the Indian ocean and supposedly prevents runaway heating there.  Anyway, when the ice shelves are gone, those currents will be gone too.  I don't think anyone can predict the net effect on the conveyor.  As a wild guess I think it might direct more warm water to the Arctic, but I couldn't prove it.

Answer 5

Because there is a large and increasing volume of water vapor over the southern oceans, we are seeing more snow on Eastern Antarctica. Western peninsula areas are getting more precipitation, but part of it is rain, enough that the western peninsula area is losing ice, while  total ice gain is almost zero.

We expect that until we see coastal  precipitation round the island is mostly rain, we will not see much change in Antarctic ice. But recall that for every ton of snow that falls on Antarctica a lot of heat, the heat of vaporization must be released over Antarctica. Increased snowfall means increased heating.

we did not really expect physics to be changed that much.

Answer 6

No, it's not the only reason.  One of the main reasons is that there's so much water in the southern hemisphere.  In fact, a lag in Antarctic warming was predicted 27 years ago.  

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/arc...

"A model constructed by Stephen Schneider and Thompson, highly simplified in modern terms but sophisticated for its time, suggested that the Southern Hemisphere would experience delays decades longer than the Northern. Schneider and Thompson warned that if people compared observations with what would be expected from a simple equilibrium model, “we may still be misled… in the decade A.D. 2000-2010.” (3)"

Interesting study about the effect of ozone recovery on Antarctic climate though.