Is the Arctic Ice Levels Starting to Return to Normal? OR NOT !!!?

Question

let's look at what's been in the news, before we make up our mind.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050824081334.htm

"Arctic Ocean Could Be Ice-free In Summer Within 100 Years"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16158893/

"Arctic summer could be ice-free by 2040"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

" Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'"

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/06/27/north.pole.melting/

"North Pole could be ice-free this summer, scientists say"

oh my gosh.

it would seem that, unless "ice free" is the norm, things are not returning to "normal".

what say you?

Answer 1

There is an important point you missed (many actually, but one really important one).

All of those articles are pure guess work not based on real data and scientific studies. Anyone can say "The Arctic MAY (or use possibly if you want) be Ice free by XXXX (insert the desired time frame). The actual fact of the matter, is the last 10 years have not shown a steady rise in temps and the most recent years have shown increasing ice coverage. Now those are real studies with real data, not some yokel saying we may be free of ice in 20 years, 6 months, 150 days, 6 hours, 12 minutes, and 23 seconds.

BTW, for the majority of the earths history, there have been NO ice sheets.

Answer 2

"<<free of ice for the first time [in history]>> "

You say this as if it really means much. "History" really only means as long as we have been really recording Arctic ice extent--which is only about 30 years or so.

Answer 3

Although new ice has formed this past year over thousands of square miles in the Arctic this ice is very, very thin.  If, a cool trend were to continue during the winter in the Arctic it will take many tears to replace the ice thickness that is considered the norm.  

The small warming of our Sun has been put to blame by some for the global warming effects we now see as apparent.  However, this small degree of our Sun's warming is pretty much irrelevant as our Earth only receives about one billionth of our Sun's energy output.

There is no doubt that Greenland is facing a real melt unseen historically and the same is true of Antarctica.  We are also still losing many glaciers world wide that really puts drastic realities at hand for drinking water in California, Nevada and for about 350 million Chinese in China.  

Ellesmere Island in the Canadian arctic has shown yearly temperature averages about 5 degrees above normal.  Vegetation has been noted in many areas to grow further up mountains then previously noted.  There is climate change.  Just don't expect it not to be quite erratic.

Answer 4

Not in the least.

The sea ice extent this past winter returned to the same level prior to the record melt of 2007.  So the deniers exclaimed 'Arctic ice is normal!'.



Of course, they ignored the thickness of the ice.  Because such a large area of open ocean had refrozen, the new ice was very thin, and highly succeptible to re-melting this year.  They also ignored all Arctic sea ice extent data since winter, even though it's now summer, and the ice is melting at almost the same rate as last year's record.

Just your classic denier cherrypicking, denying the data they don't like.

The most hilarious part is that this is the gelatinous blob's evidence that the arctic sea ice is returning to normal:

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/image...

LOL!

Answer 5

I don't usually copy and paste my answers, but I am going to give you the same answer I gave Jello.

Well, let's compare current Arctic ice with that of the same time of year in 1979:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

And 1980:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

And 1981:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

And 1982:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

And 1983:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

Doesn't look like it's going back to "normal" to me.

You're right about one thing though; this year is not as bad as last year. Last year just happened to be a particularly bad year. So let's look at this year compared to 2006:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

And 2005:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

And even, the "hottest year on record," 1998:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...

Answer 6

If I knew what the normal Arctic ice level is supposed to be,  I could answer your question. If anyone knows what the normal Arctic ice level is, please enlighten me.<<Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer, report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field.

"We're actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history]," David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.>>

Would this be in human or global history.

Answer 7

There are definitely variations in Arctic sea ice levels over time.  There always have been.  I can tell you one thing for sure...there is no way the ice cap is going to melt anytime soon.  It never gets warm enough for long enough.  In the summer, when it's warmest, the sun rotates around the horizon without setting.  Winter is almost total darkness and so cold that it would be impossible to stay.  All the films we see about it melting are in sunlight, during the short summer.  This is the only time there is some melting in the extreme north, tundra areas to the south can melt totally and flowers actually grow and some small animals live here.  Geese lay their eggs in these tundra barrens.  This event happens every year without fail.

Just scare tactics from those who have never been in the north, I assume.  I have been up that far several times and nothing unusual is happening. Keep in mind that Arctic climate can be quite variable.

Answer 8

Ice free artic, this is wonderful news, it will make drilling for oil much easier, thank you global warming, another great benefit.

Answer 9

they r not

Answer 10

No.

Here is the extremely clear long term trend.

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews...

There were temprary (very) increases in 1990-91, 95-96. 2006-2007.  A one year change doesn't mean anything.

Answer 11

Well, apparently a long time ago the temperatures would get even hotter than this and then they would lower again after about a thousand years

Answer 12

First, the north pole being free of ice is significant, but it is different than the arctic summer being ice free.  The north pole ice depends on currents and winds.  They had a big melt last year and this year the only thing left at the north pole could be annual ice which, not surprizingly would melt off.

There is a lot of perenial ice that gets blown up against canada and greenland so an ice free north pole doesn't mean an ice free arctic.

Second, the reduction in the arctic ice is absolutely frightening.  The scientist who originally surmised that the arctic would be ice free by 2100 and again in 2040 were probably using some static models that just based the melt on the heat flux (or they used those big old ibm computers using a funky language where the input was with punch cards -- lol)

The trouble is the arctic is a dynamic system and there are probably some equilibrium conditions such as iced over and ice free that can be flip-flopped by relatively small perturbations.

.........................

Bottom line is that appears we are now have a new dynamic set point where ice free is the norm.  The majority of the perennial ice pack may be gone in a few years.

But in a couple of hundred years.  All of the geologic carbon will be burnt and much will be absorbed back into the system.  Or maybe we will just get a couple of big volcanic blows.  And the ice will return.  Let's hope that both we and the polar bears survive to see such a day.

*************

Addendum

Long ago, before a career change, I did some design work for an off shore facility located in Prudhoe Bay.

Every summer, the ice in Prudhoe would melt back and the waters were clear for boat traffic through the Bering Straits.

The design criteria was for an annual winter ice pack. of up to 5 ft.  The perenial ice pack was something like 100 miles offshore.  The perenial ice is much thicker

But in designing the facility, they  were always worried that perenial ice pack would somehow get driven into Prudhoe.  How, when and where the perenial pack moves is a function of wind and current, but it can act like it has a mind of its own.

Of course the artic will refreeze every winter for the forseeable future.  This is annual ice.  We expect it.  But to have the arctic completely covered with annual ice means that all the ice melts every summer.  This is a radically different environment.  It has not occurred since before that last ice age.  The current plants and animals are not adapted to this environment.

[It also has a serious effect on the earth's albedo meaning that we would absorb even more solar radiation, thus more warming]