Is the Scottish Labour Party about to Implode as the Tories did?

Question

It seems those who ahve answered so far think so, but apart from the SNP are there any other parties (Lib-Dems, Greens or Socialist party) poised to benefit, or will the turnout plummet in futire elections?

Answer 1

Yes!And with a bit of luck England will be able to divorce itself from Scotland!

Answer 2

I think the Scottish electorate have found out that the SNP are a credible force, in the past whenever you mentioned that you were an SNP supporter you got tagged with the `Tartan Tory` label. That wont wash anymore.

Answer 3

Yes, it looks increasingly likely.

Answer 4

It sure looks that way. lol :-)

Answer 5

Most English people hope so, we want rid of the moaning Scots.

Answer 6

i hope! so. i wouldnt wish the labour party on any one....not even the scotts!!!

Answer 7

aye laddie and nae to soon

Answer 8

The Labour Party are at their lowest ebb in Scotland for many many years at the moment, but I guarantee they will remain a major player in Scottish politics for a long time to come. Their level of support in the central belt remains too strong for anything like the disastrous decline the Tories suffered in Scotland in the 80s and 90s to take place.

Labour's main problem in Scotland, is that many of their policies lost their appeal for Scottish voters, as they attempted to appeal to voters in the southeast of England with increasingly right wing and authoritarian policies, during their years as the UK government.  In the meantime the SNP have firmly occupied the centre left, social democratic ground, that Labour formerly occupied in Scotland.

As a Green supporter, I would love to see my party of choice gaining from Labour's current unpopularity, but it just isn't happening to any large extent.  While Labour's decline continues, the devolved SNP administration has proved popular and successful in many policy areas which really matter here in Scotland (quite apart from the independence issue which is little more than a distraction in my view, and quite honestly isn't considered particularly important by the majority).

As a result voters have been switching directly from Labour to the SNP. The other parties including the Tories, the Lib Dems, as well as the minor parties, have benefited very little, if at all, and are quite frankly struggling to keep up.

Answer 9

Quite possible - but not certain.

Answer 10

They already did...ages ago!

Answer 11

From what I'm reading in the Times [London] it seems that the Labour Party is slowly turning the tide against itself.  While it is true there is a lot of disatisfaction with Labour at the moment, plus there's the added problem of getting Labour support to come out to vote, this is very slowly changing.

True Labour Party Members and supporters are notorious in that they refuse point blank to vote for anyone else, however, when they are depressed with the Labour leadership, they simply will not vote at all.

This apathy, this dismay with the leadership, is slowly turning around, as Labour supporters up and down the country come to realize that if they fail to support the Party at the polls, we could have another 2,000 years of the Thatcherite Kingdom of Doom.

Messing around time is now over and it's time for Labour supporters to get serious and get out there and vote for Labour.

And a big NO - Labour Scotland is not about to implode.

People have already seen what the Tories are doing here in London and many of us now believe that London is being managed by Tory Central Office - they backed the Lewis who turns out to be something of a defrocked priest and a bad apple all round.  Boris Johnson is now perceived by Londoners to be a very poor judge of character - bad, bad and badist bad.

London is slowly going down the pan.

Bring back Red Ken - all is forgiven.

VOTE LABOUR - YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE

POWER TO THE PEOPLE

Answer 12

No not quite, I think it is likely that Labour shall hold on to Glasgow East on July 24th, and remain the hold again in any General Election in the main centre constitutes, such as Glasgow East...  The question that I ask just by how much, yet this is a by-election, and anything can and will happen.

If the Labour Party losses the seat, and it does remain some what unlikely; as a 22% swing is needed.  It will be a momentary set back for the Labour Party and certainly Gordon Brown, but I do question the "implosion" of Labour in Scotland.

As for Tories, in Scotland, at Devolved level, they have done not really that badly, they are after all the third largest party in Holyrood...  of course this is due to the voting system, thus the MPs the party returns under FPTP shall be in percentage terms much lower of that of AMS.  It may have been the case that the Tory Party took a momentary setback under Thatcherism in the 80s, but alas it was that, the party hardly "imploded" and fell apart as a whole...

But say if hypothetical, of course, that the Labour Party were to have a momentary set back, then naturally the SNP would gain in votes, and gain more seats in marginal constituencies which say Glasgow would become due to the momentary set back of the Labour Party...  the question then would be if the SNP could hold onto the extra votes, as opposed to swing voters, which in less affluent areas tend not to have. So, at the end of the day, in most probability of the case of Glasgow East, although not to put to fine a point on it, the answer is yes and on, on balance, at this stage.

Back to raw Scottish Politics, Wendy Alexander by stepping down, was harmful to the Party as a whole, but only slightly...  certainly the fact is Wendy being head of Scottish Labour in Holyrood was doing more damage than good, bad publicity, bad opposition to the SNP,  simply bad...  I think a new leader chosen out with any control (or indeed see without) by Westminster should go a long way in the fortunes of Scottish Labour, yet we shall have to wait and see who shall be that leader, and even longer to see how the leader if effective in the Chamber without speculation over personal or legal matters over their head, such of that of Wendy Alexander.  A new leader does bring good news coverage...

Though I do question how much Labour heart land would really change it's colours from red to yellow - even if the Labour Party were to go into complete melt down, or rather a "momentary set back."  

But to answer your question on where the votes could go if the Labour party, say, now this is completely hypothetical, were to vanish, the votes would not be concentrated into one specific party, we can say in all probability that the Lib Dems and the Tory party, as well as the Greens would not be the ones to benefit the most, but the SNP, the SSP and Solidarity would gain shares in the displaced vote.  For some however, according to some polls, and according to Clive points out in his premise, some "ex-labour" voters would remain just that, they would not be labbled anything else, merely not voting.  But of course this is all hypothetical...

The Swing voters, however it would appear are looking at the SNP in Scotland.

Glasgow East will have a lot to answer for the Labour Party if it were to lose...  question would of course be raised in Cabinet privately, of course on Gordon Brown as continuing as Prime Minister, back benchers shall have this leaked to them and before you know it Brown will resign, but of course this is merely a hypothetical scenario.

Sorry if I lingered to much on Glasgow East, yet it does hold the answer to your question if the unthinkable were to happen to Labour - a momentary set back.

On another note a new opinion poll out today shows Labour up 4 points, at if memory serves at 23 or 24%, a mountain to climb still of that of Cameron’s Conservatives

Indeed only time shall tell...

Interesting thoughts from a recent, SNP, commissioned poll: http://www.snp.org/node/13731

SNP: 40% (+7), Lab: 33% (+1), Con: 13% (-4), Lib: 10% (-6),

Greens: 3%, SSP: 1%

It would rather appear that the Labour Party was not in actual fact damaged, but rather failed to match the success of the SNP, quite different from a party being "damaged goods.”  However it would be more interesting to see a more up to date poll!

Answer 13

time shall tell, a wise man said to I.