Is the US really in much of a position to tell Taiwan that they can't declare independence?

Question

Let's see:

(1) The US recognized Red China (in, I believe, 1978).

(2) They favor the "one China" policy.

(3) They shown themselves impotent to post-Mao Chinese repression (as much as during Mao's rule, & before).

(4) By a (relavtively at least) speedy recognit'n of Croatia and Slovenia, they aren't too terribly bothered by divided federat'ns.

(5) By recognizing Kosovo, they aren't too terribly bothered by divided nations.

(6) After 5 years of failure to resolve the situation of Iraq (a country the size of California, the population of Texas, & the GDP of Kentucky), with Iran and North Korea defying them;

Taiwan might very well be on her own should China make moves.

(7) Papa Bush might have exorcized the "Ghost of Vietnam" with his technical and overwhelming victory; but it's come back to haunt an America presided by his son.

That and world antipathy, only increases the perception of American impotence.

(8) and, lastly what if Taiwan had nukes?

Answer 1

There seems to be a little catch 22 here. The US gave Taiwan to the ROC not the PROC. But the US does not recognized the ROC therefore they didn't give Taiwan to the ROC. Ergo Taiwan is a US possession. If China invaded Taiwan this would be considered an invasion of the United States. This little catch 22 has allowed the US to send in warships went China has threatened Taiwan in the past. If on the other hand Taiwan was as China likes to claim a wayward province of the PROC. The US is guilty of interfering with the rights of China to rule its own country. No one is claiming this. There's a bit more to it than this but Taiwan is a political problem child for both east and west.

Answer 2

When Japan renounced the sovereignty of Taiwan in the 1952 San Francisco Peace Treaty without designating a "receiving country," the United States (in the form of the "United States Military Government") was effectively designated as escrow agent.

Most people who study the treaty do not understand this because they have no knowledge of the functioning of military government in overseas territories which have become territorial cessions in a peace treaty.

With the preceding remarks in mind, yes, the United States does indeed have the authority and jurisdiction to say that Taiwan cannot declare independence under the framework of the government in exile "Republic of China."  If Taiwan wants to move along the path toward independence, it must follow the proper legal procedures.

Answer 3

Read a history book. Comparing former soviet bloc countries to Taiwan is like comparing apples to spastics. The US is in such a position b/c if Taiwan declared independence it would force China's hand - INVASION. In such an event the US would have to choose between Taiwan and China and the whole issue is that no one knows how far the other side is willing to go, and the situation is too comfortable to change the status quo. The ONLY thing, and I mean ONLY THING that has kept Taiwan from being invaded by China has been the threat of US backing them up. All of this ambiguity is caused by the fact that the US does not have a formal alliance with Taiwan, its not written in stone that we will defend them, so we really won't know if we will until it comes to that.

Answer 4

If the Republic of China declared itself independent and renounces all claims to the territory controlled by the People's Republic of China, it would be inviting an immediate military confrontation.  That is a main concern for all nations.

The number of human lives lost in the other independence declarations that you mentioned will pale by comparison if the ROC declares independence.  

You might be interested to know that the ROC acts like an independent nation in many ways.  It has its own territory which it controls.  It has its own currency, postal service, bureaucracy, military, diplomatic corps, etc.  In addition, no matter what it says, the PRC has never actually been sovereign over the territory now held by the ROC.  There is little practical gains to be made by the ROC if it declares independence at this time.

Answer 5

The point is moot. China needs Taiwan as it is and Taiwan needs China as it is. They have a financial agreement so to speak and all the other rhetoric is just rhetoric. Sorry to spoil your gloat, but it wasn't much to gloat about in the first place.