Is the election already won?

Question

if you look at the map, all Obama has to do is win Penn (he is leading by 6 there) and Virginia (deadlock) and the race is over….can you not read the map? Better hope McCain can flip some of the staes Obama has a lead in. Obama does not even need Ohio or Florida! Again, go look at the map and add it up!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/01/cnn-poll-of-polls-obama-holds-slim-lead/

Answer 1

it is pretty much in the bag.

Answer 2

Yes you're right. I've been doing that all week.

Also consider Obama brings two groups to the table that aren't even very well represented in those polls, I think his support is probably a bit greater..

Answer 3

No.

Latest Zogby polls has McCain ahead by 2 points.

So much for BO having a post DNC 10 point bounce they had predicted.

Regardless, when you look at BO's performance this last week as compared to 6 months ago it's apparent that BO is scared and realizes he has a very good chance of losing in November...

http://www.zogby.com/

Answer 4

McCain has won when Obama clinched the Democrat nomination.

Answer 5

Far from it. It's like a soap opera where you can guess what is coming but they keep throwing new things in the mix and always have a great Friday cliffhanger to keep you coming back for more.

Answer 6

As Sun Tzu famously said, battles are won and lost before they are fought.

Of course nobody knows the outcome until they are actually fought.  

A couple things about presidential polls.  For reasons the pollsters have yet to figure out the Democrats never do as well as the polls would indicate.  The other is that Democrat numbers tend to sink in the fall.  

I would posit that Pennsylvania is not in the bag for Obama at all.  His small town remark is going to come back to haunt him.  More so Michigan and Minnesota, traditional blue states may go Republican as well.  

Another factor is how big will the turnout actually be.  I expect it will be huge, but in whose favor?

Answer 7

It's not over till it is over.

Answer 8

I think (hope) Obama will win. The craptastic last four years of Bush's administration have pretty much ensured that the Democrats will win in some capacity. Obama could win and there could be more legislative seats won.

I guess we'll have to wait and see, it's not over 'til it's over.