Is the election polling actually working this time around?

Question

I was just wondering how exactly all these election polls are taken. I heard that most polls are taken by going around and calling people's house phones. But then it occurred to me, what huge population of the U.S. relies just on their cell phones, and don't have a home. College students. And who are college students voting for this election? Obama. So how are accurate polls taken by calling house to house when a huge percentage of Obama's fan base is just left out. So I was just wondering what people thought about this. Is Obama actually probably doing better than the polls say he is?

And another thing I wanted to add. The lower class families who can't afford to pay for their phone bill, they usually vote democratic. So how accurate are these polls that are taken?

Answer 1

That's funny because I was just thinking the exact same thing.  There is a huge number of Obama supporters who arent even being polled.  He is gonna crush McCain come November.

Answer 2

You pose an interesting question.  I would bet that Obama does in fact have more support than the polls are reflecting.  From what I understand, polls are generally taken with an older crowd-which is not Obama's strong point.  I'd die laughing if the polls stayed close and then Obama killed McCain on election day.

Answer 3

I don't put much stock in polls.  Obviously I like it when they say my candidate is ahead, but I'm smart enough not to bank on them.

Polls only tell you who people who actually get called SAY they will vote for:  

* Many people don't get called.  

* Many people don't tell the truth.  

* Many people change their minds.  

* Many polls are purposely distorted to say what the poll takers want them to say.  

We'll know who's going to win this when, and only when, the votes are all counted.

Answer 4

Not this time. The hard thing to do is figure out how to poll people that will vote. To do this in the past we could count on 18 to 25 year olds to not vote so the polls are still using that past pattern and discount the 18 to 25 year old vote completely.

I think this time they really are going to vote. That happened when Kennedy ran.

Answer 5

Your point is well taken.  Pollsters try to extrapolate cell phone only voters but I agree with you that at this point, the science doesn't fully cover all voters.

When the Chicago Tribune publised it famous Dewey Defeats Truman front page, in 1948, they were relying on a telephone poll of registered voters.  Back then  middle class and wealthy people had phones but poor people and rural farmers had little phone service. So the polls tha predicted the GOP candidate Dewey to win were actually polls of Voters That Had Telephones, primarily people that were well off.  

On election day, the poor and rural voters who were not polled came out and voted for the Democrat Truman.

Again, your point is well taken.  

Answer 6

Not accurate at all

Answer 7

These polls aren't really accurate at all, we'll just have to wait and see in November. The 18-25 demographic is going to come out swinging in this election. They will accomplish what the baby boomers failed to do in the United States of America.