Is the "Oil Peak" real? Can't we just drill more in new places?

Question

Is the "Oil Peak" real? Can't we just drill more in new places?

Answer 1

It is real because it is a slow forming, therefore limited resource. Oil and gas are formed from fossils...the process of fossilizing dead animals and plants is a looonnnggg process (millions of years) and we are using the oil and gas faster than the process can be completed. Oil veins run sometimes close to the surface of the globe (and mostly deep and far from the surface) this is where we explore and drill. The places where veins comes close the to surface of the Earth are very few. The other deeper drill spots are harder to find and far more expensive to risk dry drilling. There is oil stored in shale rocks but the process of getting it out of the ground is also expensive and complex as the shale have to be heated to release the oil. Therefore oil is a limited, non-renewable resource.

Answer 2

Peak oil is real.

Oil is a limited resource. To give a good analogy of the situation, imagine you want to organize a giant buffet for all your friends.

You start to call some drink and cooked food suppliers and they set the buffet for 100 people. But soon more people are coming. You call for more suppliers. At the beginning, there is no problem. You can manage it. But more people are coming.

Ultimatly, there will not be enough suppliers in the town to provide food and drinks to your buffet because people are eating faster than the food is cooked.

The peak oil is the particular inflexion point were the production is decreasing  because the new discovery are not compensating the existing decline in production.

It has already been reached for a couple of countries, which proves that the theory is real : USA in 1970, Canada in 1976, Indonesia in 1977, India in 1995, Gabon in 1997, Norway in 2001 etc...

The world peak oil is pretty difficult to predict. Predicting production i.e. what people will eat in your buffet is feasable. However, knowing the exact reserves is very difficult : some country are underestimating their reserves, some type of oil (like tar sands or oil shales) are sometimes not included in the evaluation of reserves etc...

Presently, the peak oil might have already been reached in 2006-2008 while some people think it will come in 2010 to 2020 or even later. My estimate is rather around 2015-2020.

When peak oil is reached, you have no more place to drill because the rate of discovery of new reserves is lower than the depletion (decrease in production) of the existing reserves. Basically, the food suppliers are coming but people are eating more than they can cook and deliver. Prices will increase except if some mitigation methods are found (call to another town ? Find alternative for the classic food suppliers)

Answer 3

Peak oil is a concept where we've found over half the oil, and it becomes increasingly hard (therefor expensive) to produce more.  

Yes, we do (and are) drilling in new places.  Several notable recent finds are the Bakken formation in western north dakota and some places off the coast of Brazil.

I don't believe we're at peak oil right now, but it IS true that we've found all the easy spots to get it out of the ground.