Is the recent warming trend the fastest on record?

Question

And if it is, how much greater is it than other warming trends?

For information, the recent warming trend appears to have started about 30 years ago, in 1978 (based on NASA Land-Ocean index data). How much greater is the rate of warming than found in past warming trends?

Quantitative answers only, with supporting data.

Answer 1

No- Warming also occurred between 1910 - 1945, and it occurred at the same rate as we see today, long before ghg's were an issue.

Answer 2

That's difficult to say, because the further back in time you go, the bigger the error bars.  Here are a few relevant comparinsons though.

Over the past 30 years, the planet has warmed about 0.6 deg C (~0.02 deg C per year).

From 1910-1940 (which was partially caused by greenhouse gases and partially by increased solar output), the planet warmed 0.4 deg C (~0.013 deg C per year).

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/F...

Coming out of the last ice age, from its coolest point to the current stable temperature range, the planet warmed 8 deg C in 8,000 years (~0.001 deg C per year).

The previous ice age warmed 10 deg C in 10,000 years (also ~0.001 deg C per year).

http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precaut...

However, there have been rapid climate changes in the past, generally when various feedbacks combine to make it happen (such as large and rapid ocean carbon releases a.k.a. 'methane farts').  There have likely been faster warming trends in the past, but not caused by the Sun or Milankovitch cycles alone.

Answer 3

Why are you bothered

Answer 4

No.  But it's the fastest since man made civilization came into existence.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Ima...

with references to the scientific literature at the end.

The line of the graph at the right edge is essentially straight up.  Which is why this is true:

"We humans have built a remarkable socioeconomic system during perhaps the only time when it could be built, when climate was sufficiently stable to allow us to develop the agricultural infrastructure required to maintain an advanced society.

Answer 5

Using the years you specified and the years jello specified, here's a plot showing the warming trends over those time periods.  One could arbitrarily adjust the starting/stopping years slightly to increase/decrease the slope, so I avoided that by using the years from others.

The decade warming rate from 1910 - 1945 is 0.104 C.  The decade warming rate from 1978 - 2007 is 0.197 C.  That should answer your question.

http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t55/k...

Edit: FYI, the maximum slope that can be achieved around those 2 periods changes very little by adjusting the starting/ending years.  The maximum trend during jello's period is achieved using 1907 - 1944 @ 0.117 C/decade.  The maximum trend during your period is achieved using 1976 - 2007 @ 0.21 C/decade.   So the current warming trend is almost twice the rate we saw in the early 20th century.