Is the rumored magnitude 6.8 earthquake prediction that will hit Philippines tonight, true?

Question

The prediction was supposed to be made by the U.S. Geological Society, and it was forwarded as a text message by Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office.

Answer 1

This is what I got from Philvolcs:

14 May 2008

2:00 PM



PHIVOLCS CLARIFICATION





The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology would like to inform the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain “US Geological Society” of a “magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit Philippine Plates tonight”, purportedly issued by  the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office” IS A HOAX.  This hoax started the day after the Magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.



There is no organization currently capable of predicting an earthquake which is very specific in terms of magnitude and the date. There is no “US Geological Society”, only US Geological SURVEY but this agency does not issue immediate predictions especially for areas outside the United States of America. Past experiences show that rumors of a predicted strong earthquake are common after disastrous earthquakes in nearby countries.



The Philippines can be affected by a major earthquake but as to when exactly this would happen cannot be predicted and what is important is we continue to practice earthquake preparedness and risk reduction measures.

Answer 2

As per fax message from PHIVOLCS: (may 14 at 2pm)

Phivolcs clarification on this matter:

The philippine institute of Volcanology and seismology would like to inform the public that the text message currently circulating in the phils. about a prediction by a certain "US Geology Society" of a magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit the philippine plates tonight...... IS A HOAX. This hoax started the day after the magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.

For more details, visit the site of Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (which i'm not sure if they have).

btw, there;s is no US GEOLOGY SOCIETY only US GEOLOGY SURVEY.

There... we can finally have a good night sleep tonight.

Answer 3

This is BS. There's currently no known technology that can accurately predict earthquakes. What's funny is that there's no such thing as the "US Geological Society" and there's no "Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office".

There's the US Geological Survey, and they certainly don't give out earthquake predictions.

The fact that the text message says it will hit tonight (specific time) with a magnitude of 6.8 (specific magnitude) should raise red flags for a hoax.

It irritates me to know that there are people out there who are willing to create panic just for a laugh. Certainly, earthquake preparedness is crucial, but this is fearmongering.

Answer 4

From USGS website FAQ

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq....

FAQ - Common Myths about Earthquakes

Q: Can you predict earthquakes?

A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.

The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.

For further information, see:

Earthquake Prediction

Answer 5

i say heck! this sort of magnitude level of prediction is likely probable to occur in bed. :)

Think about this, what is the main source of the message?

Text right?

If i happen to be the Area Manager of a certain telecommuncation company having millions of subscriber and is being advised to reach a certain quota for the year, and things seem to be not going my way, i will send chain letters saying "send this message to 50 persons and do not ignore or else bad luck strikes on your fate" or FRAUD PREDICTION to automatically spread the "omen" which in turn shall "fill-up" my basket of achievement so me and my boss wears a smile for the whole year round.

imagine the pyramid effect of a single text message spreading all through out the island within a short period of time.

Volcanic ativities underneath the huge body of water or typhoon in the sea, what else can this earthquake can be originated from? you tell me.

It hasnt arrive yet but its likely happening due to our own beliefs and lack of fate in GOD. we are "shaking inside"

Prayer, only prayer. not "just" prayer.

Answer 6

This is just plain rumors and no scientific basis can support that an earthquake of a 6.8 magnitude will hit today. Phivolcs has issued an advisory that this is a hoax. ABS CBN likewise discussed this in its report. No scientific or technological method can, as of this date predict the exact date, hour and magnitude of earthquakes. :-)

Answer 7

tapos na!

2 quakes hit northern Philippines - Phivolcs

05/14/2008 | 11:58 AM

MANILA, Philippines - Two earthquakes rocked northern Philippines before dawn Wednesday, but state seismologists said no damage or aftershock was likely.

According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), a magnitude-4.8 quake was recorded at 5:48 a.m. in Dinapigui town in Isabela province.

It said the quake was tectonic in origin. Its epicenter was traced at 21 kilometers northeast of Dinapigui in Isabela.

The quake was felt at Intensity IV in Dinapigui, Isabela; Intensity III in Palanan, Isabela; and at Intensity II in Baguio City and in Urdaneta in Pangasinan.

Earlier, a magnitude-4.2 quake was also recorded at 12:38 a.m., with the epicenter traced 102 km east of Cauayan in Isabela.

The quake was tectonic in origin and was felt at Intensity III in Dinapigui, Isabela. - GMANews.TV

--------------------------------------...

arthquake Details

Magnitude 5.3

Date-Time

    * Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 21:48:33 UTC

    * Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 05:48:33 AM at epicenter

    * Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 16.461°N, 122.273°E

Depth 56.2 km (34.9 miles)

Region LUZON, PHILIPPINES

Distances 85 km (50 miles) SSE of Ilagan, Luzon, Philippines

175 km (110 miles) NE of Cabanatuan, Luzon, Philippines

175 km (110 miles) E of Baguio, Luzon, Philippines

245 km (155 miles) NE of MANILA, Philippines

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 7.6 km (4.7 miles); depth +/- 7.9 km (4.9 miles)

Parameters NST= 65, Nph= 65, Dmin=714.6 km, Rmss=0.79 sec, Gp=126°,

M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=7

Source

    * USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2008rzc1

Answer 8

Hi all,

I copied this section of the news from the homepage of phivolcs

PHIVOLCS CLARIFICATION ON ALLEGED 6.8 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE

14 MAY 2008

2:00 P.M.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology would like to inform the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain “US Geological Society” of a “magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit Philippine Plates tonight”, purportedly issued by  the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office” IS A HOAX.  This hoax started the day after the Magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.

And to whoever started this fear/panic mongering... I hope you're happy... and I do believe in the law of karma... may the unnecessary stress and anxiety you caused all of these people come back to you.

Answer 9

It is not true. I called US geological call center and they categorically denied the circulating text messages that an earthquake will hit phillipines. As   a matter of fact there is no machine on earth yet that can predict the ideal time and magnitude of an earthquake. We still not have the ability to predict a scheduled earthquake.

Answer 10

hey, I also got the same text message and immediately search if there is a news from the hawaii state preparedness office or the us geological society - WALA!!! I also went thru cnn.com or any news agency, there wasnt any news also about it.

But we still have to be prepared. PRAY guys!!!

Answer 11

Log in at USGS. Here's what you'll get.

FAQ - Common Myths about Earthquakes

Q: Can you predict earthquakes?

A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.

The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.

Nonetheless, let's pray that no calamity whatsoever come to our country.

Answer 12

i have recieve this txtmessage a while ago.

and i feel that its probably a hoax.

if it was real it would already be hearn in trusted news agency's and in the TV's and there would be precations and evacuation all around.

as a fact there is no earthquake that can shake a whole county of an area of 300,000km2  that's way huge.

an 6.8 earquake can be felt only about 200 km in radius.

the message also doesnt specificaly pinpoint the exact location, which is odd.

and as common sence, natural disaster like earthquake, fire, landslides cant be predicted.

Answer 13

Philvolcs clarification dated 14 May 2008:

Philvolcs has informed the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain "US Geological Society" of a magnitude of 6.8 earthquake to Hit the Phil planes tonight purportedly issued by the Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness office IS A HOAX!  This hoax started the day after the magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of 12 May 2008.

There is no organization currently capable of predicting an earthquake which is very specific in terms of magnitude and date... ...what is important is we continue to practice earthquake preparedness and risk reduction.

Answer 14

Ladies & gentlemen: harmless rumors are one thing: but to deliberately spread *fearmongering LIES* is quite another! whoever started this lying-rumor should be ashamed.

Please be an informed person on these issues: VERIFY! before you ever forward any text or email.

This fearmongering rumor is PURE GARBAGE !

1) NO ONE can predict an earthquake with any kind of accuracy. - this is a scientific fact.

and

2) the so-called "geological agencies" alluded to DO NOT EXIST !

NEVER forward a fearmongering rumor ! thank you.

Pastor Len Hummel, Cebu.R.P.

Answer 15

It is an ungrounded rumor. The natural disasters officials have confirmed that it is a hoax.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnew...

Answer 16

False. As of this time, there is no accurate way to predict earthquakes. Scientists can predict certain areas to be hit by an earthquake due to obvious factors such as the case of San Andreas fault in the State of California. Hehehe.

Answer 17

We got this text message too.

It is possible to predict earthquakes if the initial, strong earthquake has hit along the "ring of fire." If the one that hit China hit the ring of fire which is directly connected to us in the Philippines, then it is therefore possible to predict the time and magnitude of an earthquake headed our way.

We live in a high rise condo. For others living is similar structures, the best thing to do during an earthquake would be to calmy exit into the hallway and on into the stairwell. Stay in the stairwell with your family until the earthquake passes. The stairwell is the most structurally sound part of a building and would be the last to collapse. And, if wanting to flee the building, do not go down the stairs. Rather, go up to the highest floor you can get to. If a structure collapses, the ones in the bottom would get crushed. The ones on top would be spared.

NEVER take the elevator during an earthquake!

Answer 18

if I would analyze this...

people's first reaction to this kind of hoax would probably be scared or terrified...

then convinces himself/herself that it isn't true...

others would rely on the news and the web resources...

initially, they would be preparing in case this was true...

others depend on prayers only in this time of possible disaster (Not that I am against Catholics but I just want to analyze this)

this hoax's timing is sure planned because china experienced an earthquake yesterday and probably would have thought that this will be a great prank to the people who recently knew the news about china...

for me, we sometimes can be superstitious whenever this kind of things is about to happen (if true)...

anyways... this isn't true...

Answer 19

This one is coming from left field. Ask the cellphone companies about this prediction. It has long been a rumor that these companies have a dedicated backroom of texters. On a full-time basis they think of jokes, sad stories for chain-text, even ridiculous rumors such as predicting an earthquake to text to random numbers. Those who receive it then pass it around, it's a vicious cycle of passing text messages around. The net effect is more revenues for the cellular companies with those millions of text messages at P1.00 per text.

Answer 20

The information circulating in text messages and emails about a 6.8 earthquake predicted to hit the Philippines tonight (May 14, 2004) is a HOAX. PHIVOLCS has issued and official statement today. For more info, please visit my blogsite: http://safetycornerblogs.blogspot.com/20...

Answer 21

14 MAY 2008

2:00 P.M.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology would like to inform the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain “US Geological Society” of a “magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit Philippine Plates tonight”, purportedly issued by  the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office” IS A HOAX.  This hoax started the day after the Magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.

I hope this will help calm the public...but still lets be prepared. Buti na yung sigurado...

Answer 22

14 May 2008

2:00 PM

PHIVOLCS CLARIFICATION

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology would like to inform the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain “US Geological Society” of a “magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit Philippine Plates tonight”, purportedly issued by  the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office” IS A HOAX.  This hoax started the day after the Magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.

There is no organization currently capable of predicting an earthquake which is very specific in terms of magnitude and the date. There is no “US Geological Society”, only US Geological SURVEY but this agency does not issue immediate predictions especially for areas outside the United States of America. Past experiences show that rumors of a predicted strong earthquake are common after disastrous earthquakes in nearby countries.

The Philippines can be affected by a major earthquake but as to when exactly this would happen cannot be predicted and what is important is we continue to practice earthquake preparedness and risk reduction measures.

Answer 23

if it's true it should be out by the media ...Only God knows He may or He may not allow this to happen the only point here is it's time to get back closer to GOD so that to whatever rumor we heard we won't worry about it.

God will bless the Philippines and not destroy it through this rumored disaster. If ever He will then God has a purpose..If God sees His children praying in one true GOD then he will spare us from danger and calamities..

God bless us all!!

Answer 24

This is what I have gathered from the US Geological Survey webpage:

FAQ - Common Myths about Earthquakes

Q: Can you predict earthquakes?

A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.

The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.

Therefore, the rumored prediction is a hoax.

Answer 25

have also received the same message. As far as i have researched... it was supposed to hit Philippines at around 5:48 am. There is no reliable data that suggests otherwise of any changes especially the time factor. This hoax is definitely not funny. It can create fear and panic to a lot of people in our community. Ang dami na nga ng problema ng pilipinas katarantaduhan pa talaga ginagawa ng mga tao. This will not help us move towards a better Nation. To you out there ... good job. nice work. more practice and get lost. But for all of us.. may it be true or not.. its always best to pray and prepare.

Answer 26

PHIVOLCS CLARIFICATION ON ALLEGED 6.8 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE



14 MAY 2008

2:00 P.M.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology would like to inform the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain “US Geological Society” of a “magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit Philippine Plates tonight”, purportedly issued by  the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office” IS A HOAX.  This hoax started the day after the Magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.

Answer 27

No. Earthquakes cannot be predicted that far into the future. Plus, the SMS states that the warning came from the US emergency Preparedness office. Such an outfit does not exist. Each State in the US have different emergency preparedness establishments. The closest reliable info should come from either USGS or at the very least FEMA.  The best way to find out if such a rumor is true is to visit http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

Answer 28

also received a txt msg..i google search it and so far this is what i have found...

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/rece...

Earthquake Details

Magnitude 5.3

Date-Time

    * Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 21:48:33 UTC

    * Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 05:48:33 AM at epicenter

    * Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 16.461°N, 122.273°E

Depth 56.2 km (34.9 miles)

Region LUZON, PHILIPPINES

Distances 85 km (50 miles) SSE of Ilagan, Luzon, Philippines

175 km (110 miles) NE of Cabanatuan, Luzon, Philippines

175 km (110 miles) E of Baguio, Luzon, Philippines

245 km (155 miles) NE of MANILA, Philippines

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 7.6 km (4.7 miles); depth +/- 7.9 km (4.9 miles)

Parameters NST= 65, Nph= 65, Dmin=714.6 km, Rmss=0.79 sec, Gp=126°,

M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=7

Source

    * USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2008rzc1

Answer 29

Got the same text message.  Tingin ko hindi.  Here's what it found from phivolcs:

http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/update_S...

14 May 2008 - 05:48 AM       16.53ºN, 122.46ºE        014.0            4.7          21 km NE of   of Dinapigui (Isabela)

         * 14 May 2008 - 05:48 AM Satellite-telemetered Waveform

         *  Google Map

14 May 2008 - 12:38 AM       16.54ºN, 122.60ºE        014.0            4.2         102 km S 65° E of  of Cauayan (Isabela)

         * 14 May 2008 - 12:38 AM Satellite-telemetered Waveform  

Tsaka di ba dapat US Geological SURVEY (not society)?

Di rin masama na maging prepared.  Let's all pray na hindi nga....

Answer 30

That text about an earthquake is a HOAX. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), a magnitude 5.3 quake hit Luzon on May 14 @ 5:48 AM (this morning NOT tonight). It was 245 km northeast of Manila. The Philippine Inquirer reported aftershocks felt in Ilagan, Isabela. No casulaty nor damages reported.

Answer 31

Don't believe everything you hear.  Please, turn things over in your mind before panicking.  Earthquake prediction? Possible. Predicting to within a few hours? Impossible.  Predicting even the magnitude? Not very likely.

It's a hoax.  A very irresponsible one. A little common sense please.