Is there a link between rising theft and recession?

Question

Is there a link between rising theft and recession?

Answer 1

One economic model of crime that I'm familiar with assumes (as do most economic models) that individuals make their economic decisions, including the decision of whether or not to steal, based on rational self-interest--weighing the positives and negatives of a given behavior, comparing it to conflicting/competing behaviors, and deciding on what is best for the individual.

The "benefit" of theft is the value of the thing stolen.  The "negatives" of theft include the punishment the thief will incur multiplied by the probability of being caught.  If the "rational" thief determines that the value to him of the "target" is worth the risk, he will steal it.

Digging deeper, we need to ask what exactly is the punishment the apprehended thief will incur.  There's the jail time of course, (or fines, community service, etc), but there's also the diminished opportunity for legitimate employment.  (A criminal record makes it harder to get a job).  

Now, we need to consider the economic environment in which the potential thief is operating.  If there is ample opportunity for rewarding, legitimate employment, the relative benefit of theft becomes lower.  Likewise, the severity of the punishment becomes greater, as the loss of opportunity for legitimate employment becomes greater.

If, however, the potential thief is operating in an economic environment of limited opportunity for legitimate employment, he has (relatively) more to gain and less to lose by stealing.

So, according to this theory, more people will choose to steal in an economic environment with less opportunity for rewarding legitimate employment--like the conditions found during a recession.

I have no idea whether the empirical data supports this theory.  I suspect that the model applies only loosely to reality, as I don't think that the paradigm of the "rationally self-interested person" applies very well to the majority of criminals, who tend to have serious mental issues and don't really behave rationally.  Most of the academic eggheads who come up with this stuff have never lived in the ghetto (as I have) and dealt with the kind of irrational idiots who commit most of the crime.

Answer 2

Put simply, yes. A recession means people are losing their jobs, and money is harder to find. While rationale people will not go as low as to commit crime to compensate for this inefficiency, other people will. And so, to make money or possess things they can not have, some will commit crimes, such as theft to compensate.

Answer 3

I think there is but its also due to an increase in drug abuse that causes people to commit crimes.

Answer 4

you bet their is,the worst the economy gets the more crime you will see!