Is there a real mathimatical % to what part of poker is still and what part is luck?

Question

I know that it would be based upon how good you are and what cards have been folded, but i was just wondering. If there is no answer just put what you think the ratio is.

Answer 1

I put it at 80/20, favoring skill. Bad players are closer to 50/50 or less, and the top pros are probably closer to 90/10.

Answer 2

I can't remember who put it this way, but I think that this is a good way to sum it up.

Luck is 40% of a single hand.

20% of a single tournament or game

5% of a year

1% of a lifetime

In other words the shorter the span you're looking at the more luck will play a factor.  But as you go further and further on your time scale the variance that luck brings into your game will be overwhelmed by the skill element.

Answer 3

Its 60% luck and 80% skill

....

Answer 4

luck will beat skill 100% of the time, but you would have to factor in the times when noone gets lucky and then skill would always win, but as far as knowing how often luck will be involved then there is no accurate guess or even an uneducated guess, luck comes and goes as it pleases, if someone knew how to predict luck then someone would've figured out the lottery by now

Answer 5

You can't quantify luck with a mathematical percentage.  Apart from anything else, luck is not a scientifically measurable thing.

In any given hand of poker luck can play a big part.  You move all in with AA pre-flop, the other guy weirdly decides to call with 27 and the flop is 222.  You got your money in with the best hand, you got a strange call, you were a huge favorite, you got shafted.

But poker is not a game of single hands.  Poker is about success measured in time.  The question is, what profit did you make last year, playing poker.  Because over time, skill is what pays off.  You will suffer bad beats, that's the nature of poker.  Sometimes you will seemingly not be able to get anything right.  Every time you start with a good hand, the flop will disappoint.  Yet on other times it will seem like you are on a rush, and seem to connect with the flop every hand.  Even when you don't you'll pull off a masterful bluff.

At the end of the day, you have to look at long term profitability, and as a general rule, the greater your skill, the more money you will make.  Phil Hellmuth Jr doesn't have eleven bracelets because he's lucky.

Answer 6

If you watch it on TV and they start with thousands and it is down to the same people at the final table, I would have to say luck is not much.

Its all about waiting and making the perfect bets.  You got to know your opponents.