Is there anyone expert with oil's movement in the market?

Question

Is there anyone expert with oil's movement in the market?

Answer 1

it should drop when we have a new president

Answer 2

Very few individuals have any idea what the coming movements will be...you can only rely on those that " respond" to the movements successfully.  Look up D. Gartman or T.Smith.

Answer 3

Not an expert, but follow the markets

Oil is at its peak, I think it will drop to 100-110 per barrel before Dec.

But I am not an expert.

Answer 4

Crude (Oil) is a seasonal commodity first and foremost. Over 17 years of seasonal data research, the source listed says that Oil has twin annual peaks. The more aggressive peak is in October, with the price of Oil rising the entire summer. But this year (and in more recent times) has seen a skew from traditional commodity pricing trends. Many believe this is due to the unheralded level of speculation in the commodity rather than natural consumption trends. Keep in mind there is always speculation, but there just seems to be an abnormal level these past few months which will likely, in my opinion, cause the prices to rise far more drastically than normal but reach a peak much earlier than expected (as is the case with many boom/bust trends in securities/commodities). I do think that we have another leg up in the commodity cycle (specifically with metals--chiefly Gold--and with commodity related stocks such as POT and AGU). I think in this commodity cycle, we see $165-175 Oil. In that speak you are likely to see heavy volume on USO (the U.S. Oil Fund ETF) around 30 million.

Bottom Line: We are still in an uptrend that is fierce and strong. $150+ Oil in the near-term is a near-definite. It is increasingly unlikely we will ever see Oil less than $100/barrel (personally peg odds at 25%). After this next run higher and as we move into the seasonal downtrend of crude, I expect a retracement to about $110 into December.