Is there anyone that can help me with a wagering question?

Question

I don't wager on the horses yet. However I've gotten pretty good at handicapping. I choose 2 horses on a select race, and my average is about 23-25 wins or places out of 30. However I don't know how I would put this into an effective wagering system. If I added shows then I'd probably be up about 2.

Answer 1

In horse betting you need to look for value. If you can pick 20 out of 30 winners, but the winners average a payout of $2.50 on a $2 bet you will lose money if you bet all 30 races.

The way to win is to only bet on horses that offer a value greater than their likelihood to win. If you think a horse has a 33% chance to win the race, you should not bet the horse at anything less than 5/2 (I would play cautious and not bet unless 3/1 or higher.)

Most crowd favorite are overbet, which makes them a poor value. Your job is to find the horse that is likely to win that the crowd is not betting on.

Or a simpler method would be:

Lets say over a larger sample size, your favorites to win win 35% of the time, which is quite good. The profit from your winning bets have to cover your losses from your losing bets to break even. They have to be greater to turn a profit. So your winning bets need to average a $6.00 payout just to break even. Thus, you should not bet on a favorite that is on the board for less than 2/1. If you limit your races to those where your pick is longer than 2/1, you are more likely to at least break even.

Of course you are losing a lot of betting opportunities by not evaluating other contending horses and betting them when their price is good. But that gets into more than I can fit into this answer.

Place betting follows the same principle, but is a bit more complicated. Again, too complicated to explain here.

Answer 2

sounds like you are betting 120 dollars for your chance to win, an amount to keep you going.

You might consider taking your 2 picks up front and and two middle long shots for second, on a triactor ticket.

you get less bets but more return.

If your picks up front are third and fourth, then your picks for second do not have to be as long as if you pick the 2 favorites up front.  lol :)

Answer 3

If you can pick 23-25 wins or places out of 30 opportunites you will be wealthy.  What do you mean you don't know how to put this into an effective system?  Can you bet?   OTB place?  

If adding shows only adds 2 more wins then don't bet it, it is not worth it...

Answer 4

If you are that good you should try playing exactas and trifectas and the pick 4 and pick 6.

Answer 5

its all the odds of the horse!!!!

i score races giving out percentile chance of winning

and multiply it times the odds to determine the value of my bet

example  

i give a horse 50 percent  the horse is  1-1

50 x 2 (2 return for each dollar bet) = 100 or a fair bet

if the horse is 3-1 multiply 50 x 4= 200 or expected

return of 200%

Answer 6

if you are really that good....bet both horses to place!!!!