Is this Because of Global Warming?

Question

We have been Getting T-Storms like crazy in New York! Every Other Day there is a severe T-storm! Is this because of global warming?

Answer 1

No single weather event (or even a sequence of events, like a bunch of thunderstorms) can be attributed to any long-term climate trend.  

To give an example:  if it snowed in the middle of an ice-age, you couldn't say that the snow was "because of the ice age", because after all it snows outside an ice age too.  What you *could* say is that it snows more often in an ice age.  You still can't say that any particular snow storm is directly caused by the ice age, but you would certainly see a lot more snow in an ice age than you do now.

The same is true of global warming.  Scientists think that severe thunder storms, as well as other storms like hurricanes, will happen more often as the global average temperature increases.  See this article from NASA for more info:  http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0831-nasa....

But we can't be sure that these particular recent storms wouldn't have happened anyway even without climate change.  Having said that, you can expect to see more severe t-storms and the increase in frequency is probably due to global warming.

It's like having a loaded dice.  It will roll more sixes than an ordinary dice.  But you can't say for sure that any particular six you roll is caused by the loading - because ordinary dice sometimes roll sixes too.

Answer 2

I agree with everyone else who says that while global warming is expected to produce more "extreme" weather events like thunderstorms, you can't be sure that any given "extreme" event is caused by climate change.

One of the problems with detecting climate change at all is the high variability of the weather - heat, rainfall, etc. -- from year to year.  Given the wide swings in weather conditions that occur over time, it's hard to tell the SIGNAL from the NOISE in the climate system.

There are a number of reasons climate scientists are increasingly sure that the climate is changing, and that it's largely changing because of humans injecting "greenhouse" gases like CO2 and methane into the air.

But no one knows for certain if this week's odd weather, or this year's, is due to climate change.

On another note, you might also ask whether the La Nina effect may be responsible for New York's excessive thunderstorms this year.  

The La Nina effect/El Nino effect oscillation affects weather patterns around the world.  I don't think the scientists agree yet on whether the this is or isn't connected to the larger problem of "greenhouse" related climate change.

Answer 3

no GW, which is not because of man, has nothing to do with local weather patterns.

Answer 4

No  nobody knows if global warming is real and we always have had severe weather, some years worse than others.

Answer 5

umm.....no sorry

Answer 6

No it will change ,it is not permanent. GW is a scam to make money and is propagated by Gore..

Answer 7

Thunder storms are weather, no effect from global warming.

Answer 8

No--  

Answer 9

I think NO  

Answer 10

I believe that's just the weather.

Answer 11

Global warming suggests not just general warming, but also more erratic and severe weather. They could very well be related, but not necessarily. Many would say that some areas are long over due for things like severe weather, flooding, draught, earthquakes etc based upon historical records and the idea of a hundred year something or ten year something.

Answer 12

Tricky question.

Weather is highly variable and can do just about anything.  So attributing any short run of weather in any one place to global warming is wrong.

But heat is what fuels storms and other extreme weather.  Scientists agree that, over the long run, global warming will cause more extreme weather all around the world.  

http://www.reuters.com/article/environme...

So, over your life, you'll experience more storms because of global warming.

But you can't say any particular storm is due to global warming.