Is this a fair test of paranormal abilities? Why or why not?

Question

Bill's Test of Paranormal Abilities

--------------------------------------...

1. I have a standard playing card in my wallet. Tell me which card it is.

2. I've written my cell phone number on the back of the card. Call me, or leave me a voicemail.

3. If you have telekinesis, levitate the card for extra credit.

4. If you have pyrokinetic abilities, set the card aflame.

Answer 1

Bill, those are the kinds of things you might see in a movie or stage show. I would love to be as skeptical as you are (and I think for most people skepticism is both intelligent and reasonable). The problem is the concept of "ability". Unexplained phenomena in PSI is more along the line of quantum particle behavior (what Einstein called "spooky action at a distance"). It may explain why someone can be aware of something out of the range of the normal senses. Check out remote viewing. The US government did. The results were surprisingly good, but not 100% by a long shot. To perform the tasks you've outlined would be like asking the Wright brothers to fly to Jupiter in "the Flyer".

Too bad. I would love to use PSI to win the lottery, play the stock market, and finally, to set that card of yours on fire while your wallet was in your pants pocket (just kidding).

Answer 2

1. I am seeing the 8 of hearts. No question in my mind.

2. I cant completely see the number on the back, but there is a 448 in it, in that order.

3. No TK here

4. No PK here, sorry

Am I good or what?

Answer 3

Hi Bill,

Well, I think some of these ideas have potential, but if you're looking to do some scientific testing, you'll need to refine your experimental protocol a bit.

First, I'd settle on just one type of psychic phenomena, and this depends on who your subject is and what they claim they can do. You'll need to design your protocol around their proposed abilities. Let's suppose they claim they can predict the playing card.

So now you need to lay out your protocol with a focus on the controls you are putting on the experiment. Will the subject shuffle the cards himself, or will someone else? Will the cards be shuffled in his absence, or does he need to be there? Does the deck need to be placed a certain way in order for him to sense the card? Who is present in the room with him, and have all known possibilites of fakery been eliminated? Etc., etc.

In this kind of testing you'll want to do many trials because even if the psychic isn't 100% accurate, a hit rate above that predicted by chance is still a significant result. I'm not talking something as miniscule as 50.5% vs. 50% chance, which is absurd and falls into the category of pathological science. So here you'll need to use statistics to decide how many trials to do in order to arrive at some predefined confidence interval (95% confidence, or 2 standard deviations, is typical).

Anyhow, you get the idea. Good science is not easy, it's actually fairly involved.

Answer 4

No one is able to do any of those things with certainty. Sure, someone may guess right, but that's it.

Answer 5

No. First the complete lack of controls and independent verification. How does someone know that a correct answer will not be dismissed and lied about by you? Psychics are accused of fooling investigators (being dishonest) all the time as are experimenters that show positive results so turn about is fair play.

Second as I've explained in previous answers this is human performance and the Michael Jordan's of the psychic world should be right a little over half the time.

Third. it's OK your using an unselected population (anybody that want to try) but how many people are you testing (real science has parameters) 10 people, 100 people, etc.

Fourth, do I need to be 100% right (remebering Jordans 51% record)  or is guessing just the number or just the suit good enough or do I need both? What if I get every number (including those that repeat like two 8's in the phone number but not in the right order? Is that a failure or partial success?

Fifth, Nina Kulgina may have been able to do telekinesis (by the way now called psychokinesis or PK in research literature) but in the tests she was very close to the object and could see the objects (although some were sealed behind glass) and even this caused all of her vital signs to spike near the top of the charts. So, there is zero research to indicate PK can be accomplished with an unseen target at an unknown distance and to the best of my knowledge no one has ever claimed such ability.

A basic textbook (many available at used book stores or used books online) on experimental psychology might assist you in avoiding these mistakes. Also reading the actual experiments that are conducted would be valuable to improving your questions. A link to the Parapsychological Association web site is below for your reading pleasure.

Michael John Weaver, M.S.