It is possible to draw probable though fallible conclusions from true premises?

Question

It is possible to draw probable though fallible conclusions from true premises?

Answer 1

It is actually easy to predict the logical consequence of human folly. History repeats itself every day.

Answer 2

Girl, you must be bored. I feel for you. Might I suggest Polls and Surveys? It's a fun place to hang out. http://answers.yahoo.com/dir/;_ylt=ArHPv...

Answer 3

Physical facts are fairly uniform, but truth is a living and flexible factor in the philosophy of the universe.

Answer 4

yes. it's quite common. statistics are used for this all the time. this is the best way to mislead people, the best way for propaganda to work.

Answer 5

Nah. If you shoot enough arrows blindly, you'll eventually hit the target. Possible, but not probable.

Answer 6

I know of the law of gravity, therefore, that means I can fly (fly as in, like Superman).  That is the logic the question uses so, the answer is no.  Also, it is not the math of statistics that is wrong, but how the numbers are presented.  For instance, depending on the proportions of two separate pie graphs, one pie graph can be made to look to have a far more massive quantity than a smaller one that actually deals with a REAL large quantity.  One pie graph has a sample of 1,000 test takers, but it uses ultra small blocks, or, more logically a strange and confusing color scheme to give the illusion of skewed results, or results in favor of this opinion or that.  Another pie graph has a sample of 10,000 test takers, but this time, the numbers are presented using a size more or less proportionate to those numbers.

Ugh, I don't think I'm being clear so let me get my thoughts together;  imagine a large rule notebook for 1st graders, and a college ruled notebook for high schoolers and college students.  Any graph you make in the 1st grader's notebook, will appear to have less quantity than a graph you make on the college ruled notebook, when in fact the one you made on the 1st grader's notebook actually has the larger quanitity.  Hence how you can lie with stats; its not a question of the math, but how its presented, what graphs you choose to use and how you choose to present the samples.  You can't do that with all stats though; with averages and quantifiers, sure, but when you are playing around with odds games, that's something else.

hope that helped.