Jake Westbrook-Ryan Ludwick trade analysis
On 31 July 2010, the San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, and Cleveland Indians were involved in a trade focused primarily on outfielder Ryan Ludwick and pitcher Jake Westbrook. In the trade, the San Diego Padres acquired Ludwick, St. Louis got Westbrook and minor league pitcher Nick Greenwood, and Cleveland picked up Corey Kulber.
In the end, the San Diego Padres are the winners in this three-team swap. The Padres have a dominant team even if it doesn’t seem that way. The National League West leaders have maintained a no longer surprising stranglehold in their division and have done so with very little offensive production.
By picking up Ludwick they address their glaring lack of hitting and get a solid bat in their line up. Ludwick will never be able to live up to his 2008 season, but the Padres were well aware of the anomalistic nature of that year’s 37 home runs. Still, Ludwick has enough raw power to put up good numbers in the extremely pitcher friendly Petco Park. With Ludwick, the Padres now have a second actual hitter behind Adrian Gonzalez as well as a very capable defender. San Diego’s left fielders are currently managing composite averages of just .208/.297/.289, and getting Ludwick into that slot is a no-brainer.
The Cardinals pickup of Jake Westbrook is by no means negative, but not nearly as advantageous as the addition of Ludwick. The Cardinals’ pitching coach Dave Duncan is sure to love Westbrook as he has that consistent strike-throwing groundball-inducing style that Duncan loved during his playing days.
Westbrook is finally healthy after missing an entire year due to Tommy John surgery and has not quite returned to his peak form. His control is only about 90% of what it used to be, and his ground-ball and walk rates are not up to precedent. The Cardinals do not really need this kind of production, as they already have two aces and a prospective youngster in Jaime Garcia.
Perhaps most worrisome for the Cardinals is just how much they gave up for a recovering pitcher who is a fourth starter as of right now. Without Ludwick, the Cardinals have to rely on outfielder John Jay. Jay’s been hitting phenomenally this past month, but chances are he is going to return to hitting like, well, John Jay. Once that happens, the Cardinals will have created a glaring hole in their outfield that might outweigh any benefits from a healthy Westbrook.
The other addition to the team, Greenwood, is 22-year-old in low-Class A with adequate control but no real possibilities beyond middle reliever status as of right now.
The only benefit is that perhaps Colby Rasmus will be back in the Cardinals line up on a regular basis due to outfielder needs and that will help develop Rasmus into the star he is destined to eventually be. If it happens sooner than later for the Cardinals, then perhaps the Westbrook trade will be remembered different.
Lastly, Cleveland got pitching prospect Corey Kluber from the Padres. Kluber is a fairly safe acquisition. He lacks any potential for tremendous upside or stardom, but he certainly won’t be a failure. At best Kluber will be a solid back-end starter with a sometimes dangerous swing-and-miss slider and an average fastball. At worst, Kluber will become a thankless middle reliever who will be utilised for just the seventh and eighth inning.
Kluber does have a good chance of succeeding as he has already made strides in one year when it comes to improving his command and control. The Indians need starters immediately, and Kluber will be able to try and grow further without much pressure of being replaced.
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