Jean Pascal v Chad Dawson
Almost overnight the light-heavyweight scene has become one of the most exciting around and on Saturday two of the biggest names meet in what should be a real doozey of a match-up. WBC champion Jean Pascal takes on IBO titleholder Chad Dawson in his native Montreal, in a clash of the titans spectacular.
It’s an exciting encounter in a division jam-packed with ability. Cast an eye over the like of Travois Cloud, Jürgen Brähmer, Chris Henry, WBA champion Beibut Shumenov, Bernard Hopkins, Nathan Cleverly, Karo Murat, Zsolt Erdei and these two, a true smorgasbord of talent.
In its simplest terms this big-name battle is contrast of power versus skill. Pascal can harness a lot of power in his shots and likes it tough, while Dawson is a mover with fine technique and a huge reach.
Both men are in a rich vein of form. You can’t fault Dawson, who fights with a perfect 29 record including 17KO’s. His recent activity has seen him have two fights with Glen Johnson sandwiched between two with Antonio Tarver, all won by unanimous decision.
Notably “Bad Chad” found it tougher against Johnson, a more aggressive fighter than the countering Tarver. This is worth remembering because tomorrow’s opponent Pascal falls into the ‘aggressive’ category of fighters as well.
As for Pascal, the Canadian has come back from his sole professional defeat to Carl Froch at the tail end of 2008 with four wins, including two against Adrian Diaconu and a spectacular knockout against Pablo Nievas. He flew the super-middleweight nest soon after the Nievas victory and immediately took the WBC strap from Diaconu in the light-heavies, carrying his full skill set from the 168lbs division comfortably.
This is a huge defence for Pascal and a brave move. The Canadian has the home advantage and is a dangerous opponent. He has two powerful arms that he can swing ogre-like at his opponent, anyone who saw his knockout of Nievas will know the sort of finishing he is capable of. He is a tough cookie as well, able to take big shots in his stride and never scared to get involved.
A lot of people will remember him getting outpointed by Froch, but really that was an incredibly close encounter, an enthralling back-and-forth bout that the Canadian was very unlucky to lose.
Despite being highly rated, Dawson has attracted criticism in some quarters, he may not be much of a crowd pleaser, but is a real ‘boxer’s boxer’. He is technically very good, has decent speed, great footwork, but perhaps lacks a bit of power, a finish with finesse is rare for the big man who builds a fight and looks for decision wins. His main advantage over Pascal will be his huge reach which he will need to utilise to stop Pascal nipping inside and doing damage to his body.
This is an incredibly hard fight to call; it could literally go either way. Dawson is going to want to stop Pascal taking it to the inside because the Canadian will want a war, which Bad Chad will be looking to avoid at all costs.
Instead Dawson will need to deploy his reach early, keep Pascal at bay and open him up with his awkward southpaw jab and use his speed to do the damage and rack-up the rounds.
In contrast Pascal will want to trade, if he can get in under those long arms, start unloading combinations and big punches and win his rounds more convincingly he could be in with a shout. Slickster Dawson will not want to go toe-to-toe with him and Pascal will have the opportunity to own the ring.
Worryingly, Pascal has been carrying injuries, including one to his shoulder which he sustained again Diaconu and later required surgery on. He claims he is 100% ready for Dawson but his entire hopes will be resting on whether his shoulder holds up.
Dawson seems to be bookies favourite, highly placed in the pound-for-pound rankings but the really interesting aspect of this fight is Pascal’s home advantage. The former Commonwealth gold medallist could get away with shading this fight, forcing Dawson to make a bigger impact and that could make all the difference as it will leave the big man open for heavy shots. Both fighters will need to stamp their authority on the fight early and the opening few rounds are going to be crucial.
Pascal maybe at home but there’s no doubt that Big Bad Chad will huff and puff and try to blow his house down. The question is what sort of foundations is it built on?
Prediction: Pascal 12th round KO
This is about as hard to call as they come. Dawson is much fancied and the bookies favourite but Pascal is as tough as nails and could be inspired by his home crowd.
A Dawson decision win would be the more obvious choice with most pundits, but an upset is in the air and Pascal seems particularly fired up for this. It could be a real career defining fight for both men. Dawson has shown how he can deal with a counter puncher like Tarver, but against Johnson he didn’t like his aggression and Pascal will certainly bring that.
Over the course of the fight Dawson will be looking to build his rounds up. If Pascal decides to do that he needs to be careful, because Dawson will outbox him. However if he can shade it in rounds he will get the benefit of the doubt as the local boy. Dawson is too good to depend on a hometown decision, however this will also be on Bad Chad’s mind and he will be going all out for the win, which could leave him open for Pascal to nip in.
Dawson has never lost by KO before, but Pascal has the power and ability to KO anyone in this weight class on his day. No doubt Bad Chad will rack up the rounds but Pascal is durable, relentless and a shock late flash knock out could be on the cards.
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