Kentucky Derby is looking like it might up for grabs! Who's your best longshot!?

Question

I have Two possiblies; TALE OF EKATI and MONBA.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/contenders

Answer 1

post position # 4,2,5,8 for a superfecta!

Answer 2

I am going to be watching the Lexington stakes today (19Apr) and Atoned.  He seems to have a really good record.  7 of 9 races have been place or win.

I think if he can win or place in the Lexington, he will be a great longshot for the Derby. I will definitely have money on him come the 3rd of May.

Answer 3

Court Vision!! I could change my mind though.

Answer 4

i like gayego..but it'll b a toss up

Answer 5

You sure got that right--it is most definitely up for grabs.  My bookie has already chosen who he thinks will win, but I haven't done my picks yet.  Thought I would wait and see who is scratched, hurt, or what other jockey might appear on the scene.  There are some good horses contending for the Derby this year, but some of the jockeys aren't so great.  And, they can't ride two horses at the same time, can they?  In the missing jockeys I can't seem to find Rafael Bernardo OR Jeremy Rose, and I don't understand that at all.  However, I see Mike Smith on GayeGo which I can pronounce unlike the horse he rode in the Kentucky Derby the year he won it all and beat Afleet Alex.  Mike is a great jockey and can make any horse a lot better so don't overlook GayeGo although he isn 't really picked to do that well.  Pyro could still be a good horse, but I don't think he will last the entire race.  He could jump out to a quick lead, but I just don't see him going the whole race with the lead.  And...that jockey isn't the one I would have on that horse--I would want either Jeremy Rose or Robby Albarado, who will be a strong contender on  Denis of Cork.  Robby is used to Churchill Downs, as he rides there all the time.  And, he can certainly get the best out of a horse. so that's also a possibiity.  Nick Zito is a little behind on having a winning horse, but this could be the year for War Pass who will be ridden by Valasquez.  This jockey can ride, Zito is a good trainer, and it just might be the year for War Pass to join the elite-(ist) of the Kentucky Derby winners.  I like Zito and it is high time for him to have a winning horse.  I just don't see any way possible for Tale of Ekati winning it---but stranger things have happened.  It all comes down to this:  a little talent  and a lot of luck.  The weather can either be a help or hindrance, and u just never know how your horse will come out of the gate--we all remember what happened with Barbaro.   Overall., I am going to go with Denis of Cork because I have a lot of confidence in Robby Albarado since this is his home track or else GayeGo who will be ridden hard and harder by jockey Mike Smith who is my hero next to Jeremy. Overall. I guess I am gonna be Lady Longshot as my new boss Brian calls me and I am going to go with Denis of Cork. Go Robby--this is my first BIG assignment so don't let me down!!!!! C  U AT THE TRACK!!  Good Luck and be careful!

Answer 6

Aren't they all longshots this year?  They've all thrown in big clunkers.  I can't find any of them that I can point at and be sure that it's a really great horse.  Pyro has been consistenly good in his lifetime starts except for that polytrack performance last time out.  Colonel John has been good lately but there's question about how he'll take to the dirt.  Big Brown is undefeated which sounds really good until you realize that his undefeated record includes only one stakes race.  Denis of Cork had been undefeated and impressive until the IL Derby.  It's really hard to find a good horse who has won against other talented horses.  All of the fields this year look pretty weak.  The Louisiana Derby looked like the strongest prep, but 4 of the horses who were supposed to be really good in that race finished in the bottom 4.  The California racing circuit has been strong.  The Florida Derby was really only a mediocre field.  Pyro and Colonel John are the only ones that look like they have faced big fields of decent horses consistently and prevailed.  

I have to say that Pyro is still the most talented 3 year old even after his Blue Grass flop.  After his 10th place finish, everyone has seemed to forget that he ran the final quarter of the Risen Star in 22 seconds... that's fine with me since he'll be a little better price on Derby day.

Everyone points to Big Brown as a bastion of consistency... yeah, it's real hard to be consistent with 3 starts: a maiden, allowance, and one stakes.

I read a blog today on NTRA.com which said that in the last 15 years, 66% of the Derby winners lost their last prep.  That means we shouldn't be so quick to turn our backs on Denis of Cork who looked to be quite a strong talented horse when he was undefeated until the IL Derby.

But the horse that I think has a huge shot at the Derby who is going to pay a great price is Z Fortune.  He threw in that clunker two starts ago in the Rebel but looked really strong in his start before and after that clunker.  In the start before, he was right behind Pyro at the finish of the Risen Star.  In the start after, he was a close strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby.  Since he hasn't won a race since January he's going to go off at a really nice price.  He's probably the most tested colt in the Derby and has done well against the competition.  He's had some rough trips and has come wide around the last turn a few times.  He has the experience and I think that he's prepped to fire in the Derby.

The other good longshot is Tomcito.  No one knows this horse but I really like that he has already won over 10 and 12 furlongs.  Watch him tomorrow (or I guess today now that it's after midnight) in the Coolmore Lexington.  He had a work out of the gate this week to get him more involved earlier in the race (he couldn't catch Big Brown in the FL derby since he was way out of the race early).

I also like Tale of Ekati.  I don't know though... I like him and I think he's talented, but the Wood was kinda weak.  That fast pace set up great for a closer but he couldn't get a big lead over War Pass at the wire.  He kinda struggled home... they all did... the pace went so fast, but they all came home so slowly.

The horse that I really hope wins the Derby: Eight Belles!  She's been A LOT more consistent than any of the colts.  She's had some rough trips so she should have the experience to deal with the huge Derby field.  She finished the Honeybee under a hand ride but finished the 8.5 furlongs in the same time as Sierra Sunset won the Rebel the day before!

Answer 7

I think it's pretty much up for grabs. I really think that post positions play a big factor in the Derby, so I'll be looking at the horses in positions 5 through 12.

Answer 8

For my Derby picks (now that War Pass is out) I like Gayego and Pyro. Although Pyro's lackluster performance in the Blue Grass Stakes was bad, I think he still has enough. I saw the Oaklawn Derby and Gayego looked like a real racehorse. He won the Arkansas Derby with determination. Another pick is Tomcito. He has won over 1 1/4 distance. He won his first two races by 12-13 lengths. He can be like another Canonero II. His third place finish in the Florida Derby was his first start in the United States. I like Tale of Ekati, too. He beat War Pass, but War Pass suffered a minor leg fracture. From the West Coast, I like Colonel John. His Santa Anita Derby was amazing! I am not sure that he can handle the switch to dirt surfaces (although Gayego handled it perfectly). Big Brown is an eye opener. He won the Florida Derby with ease and from a pitiful post position.

Answer 9

Last I heard, the derby was not expecting a 20 horse field.  

War pass or pyro,  were the early favorites.  If war pass does not get pushed to wide in the home stretch and war pass is sitting 3rd to 5th without getting boxed comming up to the 3/4 point into the back-stretch, war pass should win.

If war pass does get pushed or driven to wide comming into the homestretch I would be looking to see if he could reset and make a charge for the wire which will push the other contenders to let loose.  I would figure either the inside horse or the middle horse to win be anywhere from a nose to a neck.

War Pass or Pyro should be among the top 4 finishers.  lol :)

Answer 10

monba