Those who calculate such things reckon on £650million being wagered on the races at the Cheltenham Festival over the next four days.
Just how much of that stays with the backers or the layers will decide who goes to Barbados and who ends up going to Bognor afterwards but the first headline race of the meeting could easily send a few punters up a dead-end.
There are only 12 runners for the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle but the market looks more like a tight handicap than a Grade One race. There is no lack of form, the trouble is that a lot of it appears inconclusive which is surprising given that the first three home from last year – Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular – have all returned for another crack at the prize.
However, their form since raises more doubts than hopes. Last year’s Champion Hurdle field has subsequently run in 100 races for 13 victories, none of which have come in a Grade One hurdle; which does make the quality of that form look rather suspect.
Looking elsewhere in the field Solwhit has won eight of his last 10 starts and five of those victories have come at Grade One level. However, even allowing for a recovery from a recent health scare much of his best form has come on softer ground than he will encounter here and he has never run at Cheltenham, while Starluck looks the type to find two miles at Cheltenham just too much for his stamina.
The reverse may true of Zaynar, who won last season’s Triumph Hurdle. That race is run on New Course, as opposed to the Old Course over which the Champion Hurdle is run, plays more to the strengths of tactical speed which work against a horse whose two wins this season have come over longer trips.
Go Native, who stands to pick up a £1miilion, if he wins will need all of Paul Carberry’s guile as he will need to be produced for a very late run. He won the Supreme Novices’ last year when he beat Medermit by just a neck but, on that form, Khyber Kim looks the one to beat.
A complete change of training regime seems to have brought about a transformation in Khyber Kim, who finished 22nd of 27 in last year’s County Hurdle however, he has won a Cheltenham twice this season. On his second run, in the Grade Two boylesports.com International Hurdle he beat Celestial Halo (now 4lbs better off) by two-and-a-quarter lengths with Medermit another three lengths back in third.
Khyber Kim could still be improving and the International has proved to be one of the most informative races for the Champion Hurdle and looks likely to be so again.
The Spinal Research Supreme Novices´ Hurdle is likely to be equally informative over just where the betting money will be going after the first day. Most of Ireland – and a fair portion of Britain as well – has been backing Dunguib almost as soon as he won last year’s Champion Bumper.
Few of the previous winners of that race have made a similar mark over hurdles but Dunguib appears ready to buck that trend. Four effortless victories over hurdles have done nothing to dampen the belief that this could be one of the best horses to run in this race since Golden Cygnet turned the 1978 renewal into a procession.
Granted there were questions about Dunguib’s jumping last time out, in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown last month, but he could do little more than win a Grade One race by two-and-a-half lengths with consummate ease and he cannot be opposed.
There will be no lack of quality opposition in the Irish Independent Arkle Trophy Chase and the Irish-trained runners alone could provide a top-quality contest. Of them Captain Cee Bee, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner of two years ago, should get the better of Sizing Europe.
However, Somersby, a creditable third in last year's Supreme and unbeaten in two runs over fences, gets the vote. He looked something special when he beat Crack Away Jack in the Henry VIII Chase at Sandown in December and the four-month break since has been by design with this race in mind.
The Festival handicaps are designed to be difficult to solve and the William Hill Trophy looks true to form. The last 10 winners have all carried less than 11st and novices have won three of the last six renewals, which does help narrow this field down a little. Bensalem has been let down by his jumping, but his recent second to Diamond Harry at Newbury last month looks good form and, given a clear round, he looks well handicapped.
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